tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20236274861366138192024-02-19T08:14:17.628-05:00Fearless Psychological SciencePutting 'Should' into 'Science'Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-2161270636341873082020-12-22T14:27:00.000-05:002020-12-22T14:27:00.170-05:00Aliens by 2035?<br />
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<b>Aliens By 2035?</b></div>
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A credulous article about SETI claims that we'll find aliens "soon:" <a href="http://nautil.us/blog/why-well-have-evidence-of-aliensif-they-existby-2035">http://nautil.us/blog/why-well-have-evidence-of-aliensif-they-existby-2035</a><br />
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Oh? Seth Shostak will bet me a cup of coffee that we'll find aliens by 2035?<br />
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If I were a betting man, I'd take that bet. And he might as well buy it for me now, before inflation brings the price of that coffee to $20 or more!<br />
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There are many, <i>many</i> problems with Dr. Shostak's piece.<br />
<ol>
<li>"I'm optimistic by nature--as a scientist, you have to be."<br /> -<b>Nope</b>. As a scientist, you have to be skeptical. <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/popper/" target="_blank">Popperian falsification</a>, anyone? Optimism--or lack thereof--is irrelevant. <br /> </li>
<li>"Given the current state of SETI efforts and abilities, I feel that we're on the cusp of learning something truly revolutionary."<br /> -This is going to sound quite crass, but it's true: nobody cares what Dr. Shostak--or anyone else--<i>feels</i> about might happen in the future. <u>Especially</u> when that possibility is so vaguely stated! <br /> "...learning something truly revolutionary" could refer to anything from finding an extraterrestrial civilization to discovering that magnetic fields are regulated by microscopic men riding microsopic stationary bikes. <br /> And upon what is this assertion based? A <i>feeling</i>. Very scientific.<br /><br /> </li>
<li>"Most of our experiments so far have used large radio antennas in an effort to eavesdrop on radio signals transmitted by other societies..."<br /> -What if they don't want us to listen to them? Characterizing the SETI search this way is very disturbing, even if this was nothing more than a poor choice of words. If the people who are involved in this program see it as a cosmic game of peeping-tom, that raises the question of whether it's morally right to be pursuing this topic!<br /> </li>
<li>[quote continued from #3] "...an approach that was dramatized by Jodie Foster in the 1997 movie <i>Contact</i>."<br /> -Mmm, a made-for-Hollywood scientific endeavor. Because serious science is always fit to be summarized and dramatized in 2 hours.<br /> This can be forgiven, though, because the search for aliens is inherently interesting.</li>
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Michael Crichton--yes, the science-fiction author--made some insightful observations about the sociology of science in his famous CalTech lecture in 2003. In that talk, he blasted the apparent mathematical legitimacy of SETI--the Drake equation--as "meaningless." You can read a transcript of that talk here: <br />
<a href="http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Crichton2003.pdf">http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Crichton2003.pdf</a> <br />
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Ultimately, SETI is at least partly a PR move. Dr. Shostak discusses his belief that SETI can aid science literacy in a 2002 article: <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2004IAUS..213..535S">http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2004IAUS..213..535S</a> I would particularly like to point you to page 2, where Dr. Shostak writes "Because of their emotional content, the media can generate excitement for science."<br />
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But let's never allow that goal--to get kids excited about science--to compromise the integrity of what makes science so useful.<br />
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-At its core, SETI needs money to continue the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. In order to attract funding, it needs to generate publicity. And it generates publicity by saying things like 'we'll find aliens by 2035.'<br />
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Unfortunately, the more mundane truth is that we don't know a) the nature of what we're looking for, b) when it will arrive (or <i>whether</i> it will arrive), c) if we'll even know a signal when we detect it, or d) if any such signals even exist!<br />
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This fact--that we're blindly groping around a pitch-black desert in hopes of stumbling across a pool of water--doesn't make for good headlines. But it has the virtue of being the truth.<br />
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Despite all the above curmudgeonly objections, I'd personally contribute some funding to SETI if I ever become a multi-billionaire! But to be brutally honest with myself, the probability of that actually happening is smaller than the chance of a pointy-eared humanoid descending from a spaceship and bidding me, "Live long and prosper."<br />
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<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23431233-900-why-we-might-never-detect-alien-signals/" target="_blank">This <i>New Scientist</i> article</a> reports on a mathematical case that we may never detect extraterrestrial signals--not even if they cover half of our galaxy!<br />
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Shostak has been <a href="http://www.science20.com/astro_watch/we_could_find_aliens_any_day_now_seti_scientists_say-156500" target="_blank">spoonfeeding this optimistic prediction to media outlets</a> for years. I give him credit for sticking with his initial prediction of contact by ~2035, rather than moving the goalposts. But if 2035 comes and goes with no alien signals yet, Dr. Shostak will be in his early 90s...if he's even still around to see whether or not his prediction has come true. And if it hasn't, I seriously doubt that anyone will criticize a man of such advanced age. But the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/predicting-the-future-why-were-always-wrong-20151006-gk27up.html" target="_blank">history of futurists is littered with disappointment</a>; I have no reason to suspect that this prediction will be any different.<br />
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If you're <i>really</i> down on futurism and/or want to read a morose counterpoint to the exuberant optimism of most predictions about the future, read <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/2014/04/why-futurologists-are-always-wrong-and-why-we-should-be-sceptical-techno-utopians" target="_blank">this insightful takedown</a> of the whole concept of predicting the future.<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wondering about the social media usage of actual college students? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Check out <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results of this totally informal</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—but real</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">survey</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it, I review</span> some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
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<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-69339910105788705402020-09-06T14:21:00.000-04:002020-09-06T14:21:04.195-04:00Pay-to-play?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>Pay-to-play? Predators in the Academy</b></div>
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If you're an early-career researcher, and you want to be a professor, how do you demonstrate your suitability for an open position? You typically have to:</div>
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<li>Provide a cover letter</li>
<li>Provide a Curriculum Vitae</li>
<li>Provide a Teaching Statement and/or a Statement of Research</li>
<li>Provide your unofficial transcripts</li>
</ul>
But how do you really set yourself apart from other early-career researchers who are applying for the same position?<br />
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One way is to be well-connected; a recommendation from a luminary in your field can go a long way! Another option is to have an extensive list of publications, especially if your publications are in prestigious journals with a high impact factor.<br />
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It's the latter that I'd like to focus on today.<br />
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Since there is an absolutely <i>massive</i> amount of demand for journal publications, the free market has responded to the pressure: the rise of so-called "predatory journals."<br />
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<a href="https://contexts.org/articles/pay-to-play-journals/">https://contexts.org/articles/pay-to-play-journals/</a><br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/sep/18/who-should-pay-to-publish-scientific-research">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/sep/18/who-should-pay-to-publish-scientific-research</a><br />
An interview with Jeffrey Beall and overview of the challenges of identifying "predatory publishers:" <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/investigating-journals-the-dark-side-of-publishing-1.12666">http://www.nature.com/news/investigating-journals-the-dark-side-of-publishing-1.12666</a> <br />
An archived version of the famous (or infamous) Beall's List: <a href="https://beallslist.weebly.com/">https://beallslist.weebly.com/</a><br />
A sting operation to identify predatory publishers who will accept anybody as an editor: <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/predatory-journals-recruit-fake-editor-1.21662">http://www.nature.com/news/predatory-journals-recruit-fake-editor-1.21662</a><br />
It's gotten to the point where people are publishing journal articles about predatory journals! <a href="http://www.bioone.org/doi/10.2983/035.035.0101">http://www.bioone.org/doi/10.2983/035.035.0101</a><br />
An advocate of open access to research has become disillusioned by the systemic abuses that take place under the auspices of openness: <a href="https://ocsdnet.org/confessions-of-an-open-access-advocate-leslie-chan/">https://ocsdnet.org/confessions-of-an-open-access-advocate-leslie-chan/</a><br />
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How do you tell a "good" journal from a "bad" one? Well, if you're looking for a single list...alas, <a href="https://www.lymeneteurope.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3260" target="_blank">there isn't one</a>. However, the DOAJ [Directory of Open Access Journals] lists some helpful guidelines on <a href="https://royalsociety.org.nz/what-we-do/research-practice/publishing-guidance/selecting-a-quality-publisher/" target="_blank">how to identify a high-quality publisher</a>. And the website ThinkCheckSubmit.org [archived version <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170728204634/http://thinkchecksubmit.org:80/" target="_blank">here</a>] also gives authors guidelines.Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-24917198736473974592020-07-13T14:24:00.002-04:002020-07-13T14:24:42.929-04:00Around Academia<br />
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<b>Around Academia</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The first in a roundup series that I've decided to call "Around Academia."</span></div>
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Is 'self-care' just another way of policing people's thoughts, by compelling them to feel happy? Or might it be a cynical marketing ploy to sell products? <a href="https://www.coyneoftherealm.com/blogs/news/the-tyranny-of-self-care-this-year-s-model-of-compulsive-happiness">https://www.coyneoftherealm.com/blogs/news/the-tyranny-of-self-care-this-year-s-model-of-compulsive-happiness</a><br />
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Are early-career female researchers getting due credit for their work? <a href="https://www.coyneoftherealm.com/blogs/news/rising-early-career-female-academics-and-second-to-last-authorship">https://www.coyneoftherealm.com/blogs/news/rising-early-career-female-academics-and-second-to-last-authorship</a><br />
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<li>Some advice, whether the assertion linked above is true or not: Don't be a jerk. Give people due credit!</li>
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On a related note: should we publish <i>fewer</i> papers? Nelson, Simmons, and Simonsohn make a compelling case: <a href="http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/DPlab/papers/publishedPapers/Simmons_2013_Lets%20Publish%20Fewer%20Papers.pdf">http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/DPlab/papers/publishedPapers/Simmons_2013_Lets%20Publish%20Fewer%20Papers.pdf</a><br />
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<li>I can't resist including this quote from page 292: "Under the current system, researchers are heavily rewarded for having new and exciting ideas and only vaguely rewarded for being accurate. Researchers are trained to defeat the review process and conquer the publisher. Uncovering a new and true insight is quite helpful in that process, but it is hardly necessary."<br /><br /><i>Yikes</i>. An savage indictment of the current state of the publication process (rather than in its theoretical/ideal form)!</li>
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Are yoga and mindfulness simply fads with more hype than substance? <a href="http://blogs.plos.org/mindthebrain/2017/07/19/creating-illusions-of-wondrous-effects-of-yoga-and-meditation-on-health-a-skeptic-exposes-tricks/">http://blogs.plos.org/mindthebrain/2017/07/19/creating-illusions-of-wondrous-effects-of-yoga-and-meditation-on-health-a-skeptic-exposes-tricks/</a><br />
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<br />Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-83678846787874574812018-05-29T17:57:00.001-04:002018-05-29T17:57:39.754-04:00Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics<br />
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<b>Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics</b></div>
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In an interesting post, Michael Batnick, the Irrelevant Investor, makes a critical point about the oft-overlooked limitations of data in the world of behavioral finance: <a href="http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/04/04/the-limits-to-data/">http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/04/04/the-limits-to-data/</a><br />
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“<i><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Using Excel shows you how a robot should allocate its lottery winnings. <br />It doesn't show you that 70% of human lottery winners go bankrupt.</span></span></i>”</div>
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Darwin famously didn't trust complicated mathematics ("I have no faith in anything short of actual measurement and the Rule of Three," <a href="http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2017/04/05/darwin-rule-three-little-use-higher-mathematics/" target="_blank">he wrote in a letter</a>). He wasn't wrong: complex procedures can obscure what's going on 'under the hood.' This can render a formula's weaknesses virtually invisible.<br />
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Have you heard about <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/21/irrelevant_neuroscience_info_makes_psychological_explanations_appealing/" target="_blank">the studies showing</a> that irrelevant neuroscientific information in a research summary makes people rate the conclusion as more credible? The same seems to go for math—when people see some complex, technical information, they'd often rather just believe it instead of thinking critically.<br />
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<a href="http://www.bcps.org/offices/lis/researchcourse/images/statisticsirony.gif"><img alt="http://www.bcps.org/offices/lis/researchcourse/images/statisticsirony.gif" height="247" src="https://www.bcps.org/offices/lis/researchcourse/images/statisticsirony.gif" width="320" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> By Signe Wilkinson, for the Philadelphia Daily News</span><br />
<a href="http://www.bcps.org/offices/lis/researchcourse/images/statisticsirony.gif"><span style="font-size: x-small;">http://www.bcps.org/offices/lis/researchcourse/images/statisticsirony.gif</span></a> </div>
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It's not that it's a <i>bad</i> thing to gather data. Rather, it's that a presentation of complex data can obscure as much as it reveals. That goes double if the results haven't been presented carefully, and with an eye toward maximum clarity.<br />
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Moreover, focusing on statistical analyses can yield a myopic view of the situation. I know from hard experience that it can be easy to get so wrapped up in the mathematics that you can lose sight of the overall picture, as <a href="http://www.chrismadden.co.uk/cartoon-gallery/statistics-cartoonf-context/" target="_blank">this cartoon by Chris Madden</a> so cleverly illustrates.<br />
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For example, suppose I want to compare the rates of participation in various extracurricular activities among college students. I get a national sample of about 50,000 college students, and when I run the proper analyses to compare these results, I discover a significant chi-square result for participation in <i>every single activity</i> when categorized by gender! Not only that, but I also get significant chi-squares when I evaluate participation in every activity when categorized by participation in <i>every other activity</i>.<br />
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In sum, <i>everything is significant</i>! The above example is taken wholesale from an <i>actual, real-world</i> analysis described on p. 205 of <a href="http://meehl.umn.edu/files/144whysummariespdf" target="_blank">Meehl (1990)</a>, "Why summaries of research on psychological theories are often uninterpretable."<br />
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Indeed, it's a seldom-noted but mathematically necessary property of significance tests that as <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/01/what-you-think-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">sample size increases, <i>p</i> decreases</a> (all else held constant). So if you want significant results in your experiment, just keep running participants until you have a humongous sample...<br />
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Along the same lines, check out <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0956797611417632" target="_blank">Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn (2011)</a>. If you've ever run a correlation on a dataset with many variables, found that the resulting <i>p</i>-value didn't cross the magical .05 threshold, and decided to run additional analyses ('well, what if we control for X? Still not significant? Okay, how about if we control for Y?'), you're guilty of abusing "researcher degrees of freedom."<br />
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This behavior is so common that just about every behavioral researcher has done it at some point! But just because everybody's been doing it for decades doesn't make it good scientific practice...<br />
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Significance at the .05 level (or <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/mky9j/?_ga=2.168129249.1570889407.1523225418-665392121.1523225418" target="_blank">the .005 level, as a recent proposal promotes</a>) is therefore overblown. But that context-free interpretation procedure is taught to tens of thousands of students <i>every semester</i>—and all because it's the <i>de facto</i> standard of getting published in many peer-reviewed journals.<br />
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But when you spend all your time trying to hurdle that <i>p</i> = .05 obstacle, you frequently end up missing the point. It is a common mistake for my Psych Stats students—even the brightest ones—to get a question completely wrong, because they're mechanically operating the formulas without stopping to think about <i>whether the result makes sense</i> given the data. No matter how many times I repeat that it's important to look at the means, sketch a graph, and so forth, such mistakes remain common.<br />
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It's the mechanization, the bureaucratization, of statistical inference.<br />
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Any statistician worth his/her salt would object to such mechanization. Every dataset is different, and nuances can be crucial to understanding! If an analysis doesn't yield a <i>p</i>-value at <a href="https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ed/64/8f/ed648ff83c3557d1e76822330be32025.jpg" target="_blank">the sacred .05 criterion</a>, the observed effect may nonetheless be interesting and useful.<br />
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And even if it <i>does</i> yield a tiny <i>p</i>-value, that effect may be so small that it isn't worth thinking about.<br />
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Think about your data. There is no substitute.<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Want more juicy academic details? Read my preprint about the problem </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">with most applied statistics in the academic realm: </span></div>
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<a href="https://psyarxiv.com/hp53k/" target="_blank"><img alt="https://psyarxiv.com/hp53k/" border="0" data-original-height="379" data-original-width="547" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7YFULZWgufIp1EXAVOR_d9YqrveOEisDNeZhQRE5E2qhoQap5SnjJRe_OhOMpmf-vc9gMjgkoCFmx4pxQXVLqVFsM0Pq4gjgcVQxb1jAm6_keACbOur9gqvuptNHMEHrw3pBzcd6hQni7/s1600/Scaling+the+slippery+slope.JPG" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://psyarxiv.com/hp53k/">https://psyarxiv.com/hp53k/</a></div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-87768069495758466632018-03-18T15:43:00.002-04:002018-03-28T20:08:57.855-04:00Stats Doesn't Have to be Scary!<br />
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Looking for a free, open-source, easy-to-use statistics program? If you haven't heard about JASP before, then I suggest you read my blog more often! 😂 I've <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">already promoted</a> the use of JASP in the classroom and in research, despite a few limitations such as the inability to edit graphs.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Check out the full playlist: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvPJKAgYsyoJxXZn-fTmqxF_GfOQ-htvJ">https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvPJKAgYsyoJxXZn-fTmqxF_GfOQ-htvJ</a></span></div>
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In trying to probe the limits of JASP, I uploaded a dataset with over 40,000 rows and 6 or 7 columns of data. It took a minute to upload such a large file, but there was no problem with running analyses even on a large dataset such as that one!<br />
<br />
I think most behavioral researchers could spend their entire careers using this program, as long as they also have another program handy to generate publication-quality graphs. R is a popular solution for this (though you'll have to learn a bit of programming to use it).<br />
<br />
Benjamin Nanes, MD, PhD, <a href="http://b.nanes.org/figures/" target="_blank">recommends additional options</a> such as ImageJ or Inkscape. They're free, which is a big plus for impoverished graduate students and/or those who simply want to avoid the hassle of trying to get a license for SPSS or another such program on their personal computers.<br />
<br />
Though I haven't tried these myself (yet!), I trust Dr. Nanes' recommendations and plan to try them out soon. Another option, also recommended by Dr. Nanes, is Inkscape: this could be used to add text (such as axis labels) to the graph generated by JASP and export it in a vector format that your journal will accept.<br />
<br />
Everything I've said so far about <a href="http://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">JASP</a> also goes for <a href="http://jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, another free and open-source program with a user-friendly interface. JASP started development before jamovi, so it's a little further along in its capabilities, but the original lead programmer for JASP is the lead programmer for jamovi, so there are many similarities between the programs--and I like both of them! jamovi does have a few features that JASP lacks, including the ability to see the R syntax for a given operation. This makes jamovi a great bridge for those who would like to learn R!<br />
<br />
Since both JASP and jamovi are based on R but provide a far more visually appealing user interface, the analyses are trustworthy (though I've double-checked some analyses myself) and the programs themselves are easy to use.<br />
<br />
In any case, if you're wondering why I like JASP so much, I made and edited a series of videos yesterday showing how to install JASP, upload files, and run most of the common tests in JASP 0.8.6.0. I've compiled these videos into <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uZC7Vvb6wk&list=PLvPJKAgYsyoJxXZn-fTmqxF_GfOQ-htvJ" target="_blank">a YouTube playlist</a>; note that the instructions for jamovi are going to be quite similar.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnTB838cX4sTPyhhJ4LTLsM0SLq1stY6EN4VrVURt1oZa_F28vpwg0V7xL2BBJ0ZuZ0QD9pgHWz0G8da4IgdhiILAZ2-ZdcQrad0s0Es_wblUt2MgZDMkDvtOfPQuvD4u-rIj7vvGqaXIv/s1600/JASP+startup.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1198" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnTB838cX4sTPyhhJ4LTLsM0SLq1stY6EN4VrVURt1oZa_F28vpwg0V7xL2BBJ0ZuZ0QD9pgHWz0G8da4IgdhiILAZ2-ZdcQrad0s0Es_wblUt2MgZDMkDvtOfPQuvD4u-rIj7vvGqaXIv/s320/JASP+startup.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">screenshot of JASP 0.8.6.0 from my own computer</span></div>
<br />
If you haven't already tried <a href="http://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">JASP</a> or <a href="https://www.jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, what are you waiting for?<br />
<br />
<br />
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***
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wondering about the social media usage of actual college students? </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Check out <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results of this totally informal</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—but real</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">survey</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In case you missed it, I review</span> some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
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<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-62152990125452782312018-02-28T10:29:00.000-05:002018-06-11T15:42:50.073-04:00Peer Review On Trial<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Peer Review Gone Wrong</b><br />
or, <i>A Cynic's Manifesto </i><b><br /></b></div>
<br />
This behavior should get your scientific knickers in a knot: <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/02/23/3m-lawsuit-pfcs-pollution/">https://theintercept.com/2018/02/23/3m-lawsuit-pfcs-pollution/</a><br />
<br />
Essentially, 3M used perfluorinated chemicals in the production of some of their products (like Scotchgard). Research has demonstrated that such chemicals may harm humans, other organisms, and the environment when they seep into the ground water.<br />
<br />
The State of Minnesota sued 3M for this; 3M settled the case for less than 1/5 the amount of the lawsuit, and all without admitting wrongdoing. And 3M had the gall to release a statement describing the settlement as "consistent with 3M’s long history of environmental stewardship."<br />
<br />
With 'environmental stewards' like that, who needs polluters?...<br />
<br />
Just as outrageously (perhaps more so, if you're an early-career researcher!), this article points out that Minnesota's lawsuit named a <a href="https://www.usask.ca/toxicology/jgiesy/" target="_blank">widely-published professor, Dr. John Giesy</a>, who allegedly took money from 3M
while putting obstacles to publication in the path of scientists
whose work showed that perfluorinated chemicals can be dangerous.<br />
<br />
State's evidence includes <a href="https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/PressRelease/PDF/20180206/PDF_40.pdf" target="_blank">this e-mail</a>, and <a href="https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/PressRelease/PDF/20180206/PDF_47.pdf" target="_blank">this particularly damning one</a>, which shows that Giesy knew perfectly well that he was protecting 3M and its interests.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
Enraged yet? Maybe we need to put the process of peer review on trial!<br />
<br />
This instance shows that the traditional peer-review system is flawed. Fundamentally, fatally flawed. The peer-review process says "Trust me," while hiding an unknowable number of instances of misconduct just like this one.<br />
<br />
The conflict-of-interest is not always so obviously money-driven. You may get reviewers who simply disagree with your interpretation (especially if your findings contradict their own previous work), and therefore recommend against publication.<br />
<br />
It's clearly unethical to block somebody's work in order to protect the interests of a funding source. It's less clear whether it's unethical to block somebody's work when you think the conclusions are wrong, but can't quite put your finger on <i>why</i>.<br />
<br />
Here, I'm reminded of noted <a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Max_Planck" target="_blank">physicist Max Planck's observation that</a> "A new scientific truth
does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the
light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new
generation grows up that is familiar with it." Planck's quote shows that this is <i>not</i> a new problem; he lived from 1858-1947.<br />
<br />
This quote is often cynically paraphrased as "Science advances one funeral at a time..." [note that Planck didn't actually say this, though it pithily captures the idea].<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="https://spark.adobe.com/page/Gfr5gtrvrkePs/embed.jpg?buster=1489423343660" height="160" src="https://spark.adobe.com/page/Gfr5gtrvrkePs/embed.jpg?buster=1489423343660" title="Science advances one funeral at a time (not actually a Max Planck quote)" width="320" /><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">This isn't actually a quote from Planck himself; it's paraphrased.</span></div>
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<a href="https://spark.adobe.com/page/Gfr5gtrvrkePs/embed.jpg?buster=1489423343660"><span style="font-size: x-small;">https://spark.adobe.com/page/Gfr5gtrvrkePs/embed.jpg?buster=1489423343660</span></a> </div>
<br />
In an era when publishing your work is as simple as uploading your data and your paper online, why hand over your hard work—<i>gratis</i>—to a for-profit publishing house who charges insane rates to your institution (thereby ripping off your students and/or the state taxpayers), only to subject it to scrutiny by parties who may or may not have a hidden agenda?<br />
<br />
That process may have been necessary 100 years ago, or even 40 years ago.<br />
<br />
But it's not necessary today.<br />
<br />
A growing number of preprint services are available in a variety of disciplines. Physics started the trend with arXiv.org (pronounced like "archive") in 1996; PsyArXiv officially launched in late 2016.<br />
<br />
For PsyArXiv, which <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjz1paV08fZAhUBzlkKHRSUDvoQFggpMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fosf.io%2Fpreprints%2Fpsyarxiv%2Fhp53k%2Fdownload&usg=AOvVaw3IBSibIk_nUUmHlahOaAE3" target="_blank">I've already used</a>, you have to register first. Then, you can upload <u><i>all</i></u> your materials, making them freely available to anyone—whether or not that person can be considered a "peer." These tools to open science can be particularly helpful for researchers who want to replicate your work, or people who have questions about your data.<br />
<br />
This brings me back to Dr. Giesy's scientific misconduct, as well as the recent discoveries of people who fabricated or massaged results, like <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/netherlands/8868337/Dutch-social-psychologist-found-to-have-faked-data.html" target="_blank">social psychologist Diederik Stapel</a>, <a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/32305/title/Parkinson-s-Researcher-Fabricated-Data/" target="_blank">biochemist/Parkinson's Disease researcher Mona Thiruchelvam</a>, <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/342/bmj.c7452" target="_blank">physician Andrew Wakefield</a>, and <a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/32312/title/Anesthesiologist-Fabricates-172-Papers/" target="_blank">anesthesiologist Yoshitaka Fujii</a>, who fabricated data for a whopping <i>172 papers</i>!<br />
<br />
Why would people make up data for a scientific paper? <a href="https://web.archive.org/save/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_misconduct" target="_blank">In part, due to the massive career pressure</a> that comes along with peer-reviewed publications. Hiring committees or tenure committees, strapped for time and with a million additional responsibilities besides hiring or promoting their next colleague, assume that a prolific author is a good scientist.<br />
<br />
Here, I'm reminded of the old saw that quantity ≠ quality...<br />
<br />
Still not convinced that peer review is a substandard method to evaluate quality? Check out <a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33695/title/Top-Science-Scandals-of-2012/" target="_blank">this roundup</a> of the worst science scandals of 2012. Or <a href="https://gizmodo.com/the-most-notorious-science-scandals-of-2015-1748385638" target="_blank">these whoppers from 2015</a> (some of which relate to research, others of which relate to the everyday conduct of scientists). Or the research misconduct discovered in 2017, listed the end of <a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/51061/title/The-Biggest-Science-Scandals-of-2017/" target="_blank">this page</a>.<br />
<br />
The history of science is littered with massaged data, fabricated data, serious methodological errors, interpretations that don't follow from the data, and more! Bearing in mind such scandals as these, why do we cling to the quaint notion that peer review is the 'gold standard' of evaluating scientific fact?<br />
<br />
Now, some people work in subfields that require specialized knowledge. In such cases, peer review can be a helpful way to evaluate the quality of a study's methodology and whether the conclusions follow logically from the results obtained by those methods.<br />
<br />
But too often, it's a cop-out to maintain the status quo, instead of people challenging themselves to implement solutions to the problems with the current system.<br />
<br />
This story also brings up the question: should editors decide whether or not to publish a paper—a decision that can affect the author's career—based on the opinions of reviewers? The case of Dr. Giesy suggests that this policy, which is standard among even the most highly-regarded journals, might be misguided.<br />
<br />
We have years' worth of evidence that experts can't catch outright fakery, and now we have at least one instance where experts deliberately block papers with undesirable findings. It's common knowledge that this sort of behavior happens for ideological reasons; the Max Planck quote above confirms that this was a well-known issue <i>at least</i> 100 years ago.<br />
<br />
This case is the first instance <i>I've</i> heard of in which a reviewer acted deliberately to protect the interests of a company or organization. Unfortunately, there's no way to know how pervasive this problem may be.<br />
<br />
There's even evidence that highly-influential scientific papers are rejected by reviewers and/or editors. See, for instance, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/these-8-papers-were-rejected-before-going-on-to-win-the-nobel-prize" target="_blank">these 8 papers</a> by eventual Nobel-prize winning scientists! ("It was rejected on the grounds that it will not interest physicists." Ha!!!)<br />
<br />
So, is the peer review system ripe for a review of itself?<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4972014/" target="_blank">At least one scholar is more optimistic</a> about the process of peer review than I am. In that paper, the position I've adopted—that peer-review is an indefensible method of gatekeeping that adds unnecessary layers of bureaucracy (as well as more chances for mistakes) to an already painfully slow process—is dubbed "cynical."<br />
<br />
You're damn right I'm cynical!<br />
<br />
And if <i>you're</i> not feeling cynical, go re-read what I've written so far. Peruse the links I've provided here. I'll wait.<br />
<br />
Or, you can find plenty of examples for yourself: here's <a href="https://www.google.com/search?ei=VC2WWqjzDs7J5gLhxIuQDA&q=scientific+misconduct+cases&oq=scientific+misconduct+&gs_l=psy-ab.3.2.0i67k1l3j0l3j0i67k1l2j0l2.5127.5127.0.7248.1.1.0.0.0.0.219.219.2-1.1.0....0...1c..64.psy-ab..0.1.219....0.dWopxHskHNc" target="_blank">a link to a Google search</a> (and here's <a href="https://duckduckgo.com/q=scientific+misconduct+cases&ia=web?ia=web" target="_blank">a link to a DuckDuckGo search</a> if that's your preferred search engine).<br />
<br />
If you'd prefer an argument from somebody who isn't me, the popular blogger and statistician Andrew Gelman makes a case against peer review <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2016/02/01/peer-review-make-no-damn-sense/" target="_blank">here</a>, so I'm clearly not the only scholar to distrust the process.<br />
<br />
And what about the vast, <i>vast</i> majority of research in which there's no fraud? Surely, 99% of published research is trustworthy, right? Well, consider <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/a-dig-through-old-files-reminds-me-why-ie28099m-so-critical-of-science/" target="_blank">this piece</a>, written by a veteran science journalist, that I use in my own teaching. Or <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/Power-of-Suggestion/136907" target="_blank">this summary</a> of the uncertainty surrounding behavioral priming research. Or John Ioannidis' famous 2005 paper, provocatively titled "<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1182327/" target="_blank">Why Most Published Research Findings Are False</a>." [The contents of Ioannidis' paper are dense and mathematical, but not quite as pessimistic as the title suggests.]<br />
<br />
OK, after reading all of that...feeling cynical enough yet?<br />
<br />
Then answer this: why do 'peer-reviewed publications' still constitute the major criterion for how researchers are evaluated? How many instances of deceit have to be uncovered before we figure out a new way to figure out whether an academic's work is worthwhile?<br />
<br />
Maybe we just need to stick our collective heads out the window and yell, "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug&feature=youtu.be&t=1m33s" target="_blank">I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not gonna take it anymore!</a>"<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ZwMVMbmQBug/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZwMVMbmQBug?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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The famous line from <i>Network</i> begins at 1:33. Here's the clip in its entirety.<br />
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<b>UPDATE 6/11/2018</b>: Also see this comment from 'Al_The_Plumber' on a report from Nautilus: <a href="http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/how-the-biggest-fabricator-in-science-got-caught" target="_blank">http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/how-the-biggest-fabricator-in-science-got-caught </a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkezjRxjiaUvHwnxYJ-VmJtIBR3qm2L1lhiG0NC_mno6CjsNnS-OSs_7VUMiynPbu7k4H4oKq-GQmQxxj3PVIIXgQxYaQP-zUbnOrP7xfHsIyFVet-rotEQzdvQOpIsF1jrHT49H9OmxBe/s1600/Problems+with+peer+review.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="1149" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkezjRxjiaUvHwnxYJ-VmJtIBR3qm2L1lhiG0NC_mno6CjsNnS-OSs_7VUMiynPbu7k4H4oKq-GQmQxxj3PVIIXgQxYaQP-zUbnOrP7xfHsIyFVet-rotEQzdvQOpIsF1jrHT49H9OmxBe/s320/Problems+with+peer+review.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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I think that the quote at the end (from Richard Horton, former editor of prestigious medical journal <i>The Lancet</i>) summarizes the issue very succinctly: </div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The mistake, of course, is to have thought that peer review was any more than a crude means of discovering the acceptability - not the validity - of a new finding...we know that the system of peer review [<i>like any other endeavor that relies on human judgment</i>] is biased, unjust, unaccountable, incomplete, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally foolish, and frequently wrong. </span></span></div>
</blockquote>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Bracketed text added by me, to emphasize that the problem isn't with peer review <i>per se</i>, but with fundamental human flaws. <br /><br />A <a href="https://duckduckgo.com/?q=The+mistake%2C+of+course%2C+is+to+have+thought+that+peer+review+was+any+more+than+a+crude+means+of+discovering+the+acceptability+-+not+the+validity+-+of+a+new+finding&t=palemoon&ia=web" target="_blank">quick search reveals</a> that this quote is often used by people who peddle alternative medicine and claim that medical science is in the pocket of 'Big Pharma.' While the pharmaceutical industry undoubtedly tries to exert its influence on people and on institutions, 'alternative medicine' often results in <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/114899/paul-offits-do-you-believe-magic-reviewed-dangers" target="_blank">avoidable deaths</a> and <a href="https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/risks-associated-with-complementary-and-alternative-cam-medicine-a-brief-overview/" target="_blank">other problems</a> due to medication interactions, or people avoiding treatments that have been shown to be generally effective. Doctors and professors are sometimes mistaken, but so are practitioners of alternative "medicine."<br /><br />The NewRepublic link in the previous paragraph has a great quote illustrating what I'm talking about: "A scientist approaches all treatments with an open but skeptical mind." That is, a good scientist seeks only the truth about whether (and how) a treatment works. <br /><br />Whether the claim is that <a href="https://nccih.nih.gov/health/stjohnswort/sjw-and-depression.htm" target="_blank">St. John's Wort treats depression</a> or that <a href="http://amp.kmbc.com/article/a-revolutionary-cancer-treatment-in-kansas-city-could-make-chemo-and-radiation-a-thing-of-the-past/21209081" target="_blank">CAR-T can cure leukemia</a>, a good scientist should say "This <i>might</i> work, but there are so many sham treatments out there that I better design a strict test. I'll only believe it works after I see it succeed in multiple, well-designed experimental studies comparing it to conventional treatments <i>and</i> to a placebo."<br /><br />If someone offers you a 'miraculous natural cure that's being covered up by Big Pharma,' always remember that cyanide, arsenic, hemlock, cocaine, botulinum (a bacteria-produced toxin), and tetrodotoxin are <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/114899/paul-offits-do-you-believe-magic-reviewed-dangers" target="_blank">a few examples of <i>all-natural</i> poisons that are almost instantly lethal</a>. Natural ≠ good.<br /><br />So don't think for a second that my criticism of the peer-review process means that I'm advocating junk science! I'm simply not buying the hype that "if it's published in a peer-reviewed journal, then it's true." Science will always be far more complicated than that.</li>
</ul>
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-17478429239164390442018-01-15T19:00:00.000-05:002018-01-18T22:53:22.026-05:00In memoriam of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">On this date in 1929 (January 15), the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was born. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnsjVArVXFUjM4qS8XtlbGeN6vrsabEWMLMAyfeFKwt0mJf5q8Thly9V4jtWos1MIwkav0vTmIhAf4SI6dJOBBwLQqMYOEZuN0W1mVz3nU6ZPfhOh2C_kzz-4cAf3y74W-GY6UK_1Y1Lc8/s1600/MLK.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="365" data-original-width="650" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnsjVArVXFUjM4qS8XtlbGeN6vrsabEWMLMAyfeFKwt0mJf5q8Thly9V4jtWos1MIwkav0vTmIhAf4SI6dJOBBwLQqMYOEZuN0W1mVz3nU6ZPfhOh2C_kzz-4cAf3y74W-GY6UK_1Y1Lc8/s320/MLK.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">To honor his legacy today, I'd like to share a couple of his important works. Here's a brief excerpt from "Letter From a Birmingham Jail:"</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">I would agree with St. Augustine that 'an unjust law is no law at all'...We should never forget that everything Adolf Hitler did in Germany was 'legal' and everything the Hungarian freedom fighters did in Hungary was 'illegal.' It was 'illegal' to aid and comfort a Jew in Hitler’s Germany. </span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZNbCdDHPPDxCh4xXbxpHf11uES3YCOEiyvG2-bR76P4lf-awmtXxEJj6fCwqSfco7P5ysC561kWR2ZSH0foMd-Jo8EdGYoip53eZqaneYcXZfqLJURkosd7RKPQjk4q2fYxB0zhQC89m/s1600/martin-luther-king-jr-quotes-8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="596" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZNbCdDHPPDxCh4xXbxpHf11uES3YCOEiyvG2-bR76P4lf-awmtXxEJj6fCwqSfco7P5ysC561kWR2ZSH0foMd-Jo8EdGYoip53eZqaneYcXZfqLJURkosd7RKPQjk4q2fYxB0zhQC89m/s320/martin-luther-king-jr-quotes-8.png" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/58794d07f10a9a51098b848b/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/58794d07f10a9a51098b848b/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg</span></span></a></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">The entire "Letter From a Birmingham Jail" is brilliant, insightful, and well worth a read! The full text can be found at </span><a data-lynx-mode="async" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Famp.miamiherald.com%2Fopinion%2Fop-ed%2Farticle194707929.html&h=ATOZd-5Szn74YIkheiqiyGTBnFWnxA2hKOgYB3NRT1IbkUA1SDONMGXhgyVL5muNYUf22Ky8PY11CtzoXMiV4lw-zAEvGgkweYWwmFMNIxflKSuWTg40ueBK0xP62IsNGlyGUtsLVBVRNjV6cd1gnP5uTsDXFmqx1iG_UQroeLTsDWSIvsJdrgEbn3x5END1VNsC1tw921DQte_GItlmFHBjWEgHmX7LbX1g7zy6gcg" href="http://amp.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article194707929.html" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: white; color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://</span><wbr></wbr><span style="font-family: inherit;">amp.miamiherald.com/</span><wbr></wbr><span style="font-family: inherit;">opinion/op-ed/</span><wbr></wbr>article194707929.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6VElRuYs8RiAR6eEkZIXyquJSe8OwDV_yjxqKuThzCYIoBsU-8ruC3tj410LCnfPmqucF0U1dlYTWOvQszf9ieI5eT9ICtAuuMLOpcvP-3ojqmTpAQWfioXywS0alkGgw0HdAoT4fgTC2/s1600/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6VElRuYs8RiAR6eEkZIXyquJSe8OwDV_yjxqKuThzCYIoBsU-8ruC3tj410LCnfPmqucF0U1dlYTWOvQszf9ieI5eT9ICtAuuMLOpcvP-3ojqmTpAQWfioXywS0alkGgw0HdAoT4fgTC2/s320/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg.png" width="320" /> </a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/58794d07f10a9a51098b848b/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg"><span style="font-size: x-small;">http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/58794d07f10a9a51098b848b/12-inspiring-quotes-from-martin-luther-king-jr.jpg</span></a> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The "I Have a Dream" speech, an instant classic, was delivered on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial at the March on Washington in 1963. Fortunately for posterity, his speech was recorded in its entirety. Here it is, via YouTube:</span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/I47Y6VHc3Ms/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/I47Y6VHc3Ms?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I47Y6VHc3Ms">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I47Y6VHc3Ms</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Dr. King was assassinated on April 4, 1968. Though the man himself was mortal, his actions, his words, and his <a href="https://justlists.wordpress.com/2009/09/28/20-quotes-from-the-non-violent-resistance/" target="_blank">legacy of nonviolent resistance to injustice</a> shine as brightly today as they did in the 1960s!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I would like to leave you with two other inspiring quotes from the Rev. Dr. King: </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZOe566q-4Yf5huNAphMHZCTQIvtIvmzewPfIv_sd5wruzq_gEWtZMPeSuDsDUktJdSt97QbB5fmSREQcMOBLP0KsfejqmzYVaykGMCSY8R8x6Pr32Tr3sEsOq0WSPgG9hD4yFGUIjBqZm/s1600/MLK+Slide2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="1060" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZOe566q-4Yf5huNAphMHZCTQIvtIvmzewPfIv_sd5wruzq_gEWtZMPeSuDsDUktJdSt97QbB5fmSREQcMOBLP0KsfejqmzYVaykGMCSY8R8x6Pr32Tr3sEsOq0WSPgG9hD4yFGUIjBqZm/s320/MLK+Slide2.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilEPGjX0JSbnYgFKVyd5xmHmVAsL9bAS8PNXl3OMKq85curEIV5pBA7l0novOC7asCXiY0V5wLi9JHF1NMq3lTDMXK3wIb6pTcr15FBkubjXkNeaO1nIuFgiPk6sfdfG9E4_FupmZJXVbH/s1600/MLK+jpg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1200" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilEPGjX0JSbnYgFKVyd5xmHmVAsL9bAS8PNXl3OMKq85curEIV5pBA7l0novOC7asCXiY0V5wLi9JHF1NMq3lTDMXK3wIb6pTcr15FBkubjXkNeaO1nIuFgiPk6sfdfG9E4_FupmZJXVbH/s320/MLK+jpg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Always remember Dr. King's principles and his commitment to fairness and justice. May we all work with tireless integrity to uphold these principles, in all times and places, and for all people.</span>Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-37224461630129288842018-01-13T15:06:00.000-05:002018-01-20T18:29:46.841-05:00When Google Is Wrong (!)<br />
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Picture this scenario:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhze0M4WS5Yc_rofVGxyCxitblm71NDoBl6lgSS4KYPeVfiUjOMOENiLknjevrg_7M9H5rWdkZXg7HF72v7VSVhnKWsdiAZg_IE3Izb307iDlShgLMlCeMU9xxo1PwaqaG00asui5ODRnjb/s1600/workplace-1245776_640.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="640" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhze0M4WS5Yc_rofVGxyCxitblm71NDoBl6lgSS4KYPeVfiUjOMOENiLknjevrg_7M9H5rWdkZXg7HF72v7VSVhnKWsdiAZg_IE3Izb307iDlShgLMlCeMU9xxo1PwaqaG00asui5ODRnjb/s320/workplace-1245776_640.jpg" width="320" /> </a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Royalty-free picture: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/workplace-team-business-meeting-1245776/">https://pixabay.com/en/workplace-team-business-meeting-1245776/</a></span> </div>
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You're talking with a group of people, when somebody says, "I crossed the Mississippi River a couple weeks ago. You know, I was expecting it to be huge and impressive, right? But it really wasn't even that wide—it only took a minute to cross the old iron bridge, and I was on land again. Isn't the Mississippi supposed to be the third-longest river in the world?"<br />
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"Wait, I thought it was the fourth-longest."<br />
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"I'm pretty sure I learned that it was third-longest."<br />
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"Ok, let's look it up. How long <i>is</i> the Mississippi, anyway?"<br />
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"How do you spell 'Mississippi' again?..."<br />
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And people pull out their phones and Google "Mississippi river length." But maybe you shouldn't be so quick to rely on Google for your facts!<br />
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_________________ </div>
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<a name='more'></a>In preparation for a lecture this semester, I needed to find the length of the Mississippi River (to illustrate a psychological point. It's less weird than it sounds...). The first thing I did was the same thing the people in the above scenario did: I searched it on Google.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH-6ZJj3LznCXTv08A5JUc0FjP01-74d1aFu7NSjfgX80pMpeHAhQkzSTnlR8kHHdPhmcIs49S0gVL9M-nbd6Vn3QFGHtT9HmuSFIw1e74aytqSwvaVzVEJxxb4JTcBOHAF_cpfDDEtuRN/s1600/Mississippi+River+at+night.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="640" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH-6ZJj3LznCXTv08A5JUc0FjP01-74d1aFu7NSjfgX80pMpeHAhQkzSTnlR8kHHdPhmcIs49S0gVL9M-nbd6Vn3QFGHtT9HmuSFIw1e74aytqSwvaVzVEJxxb4JTcBOHAF_cpfDDEtuRN/s320/Mississippi+River+at+night.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://writing.upenn.edu/projects/mississippi.php">http://writing.upenn.edu/projects/mississippi.php</a></span></div>
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For simple, fact-based questions like this, Google pulls information from sources like Wikipedia. So I didn't even have to click any links; I simply wrote down the "2,320 miles" listed in Google's quick facts box:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXKukOvXB2w0_ARf-N27W67w-ZcseKZGoGzdAO7HRMDlXW45hw4L1KJ97F96D3kplkBMTWEel9q8dGpzHl9d2iAi2uzUU7mpd1NiRfVWsdDvg0rZu2J0B2HZPVd4pceHufCcQ12BGKs3Pp/s1600/Mississippi+River+1_Google.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1334" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXKukOvXB2w0_ARf-N27W67w-ZcseKZGoGzdAO7HRMDlXW45hw4L1KJ97F96D3kplkBMTWEel9q8dGpzHl9d2iAi2uzUU7mpd1NiRfVWsdDvg0rZu2J0B2HZPVd4pceHufCcQ12BGKs3Pp/s320/Mississippi+River+1_Google.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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But I didn't get this far in my schooling without being curious (and a nerd!). So I went to the first link, which was the Wikipedia page, and saw the same number: 2,320 miles.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIERpevwTosSaRwiHmI1pA9W_fnQeAEQuW6y8GQxUqXysK7s6-iS6-astKa62UJnPA4yDBHesIdSwetIkNKp5sObBRQokuniHd5KjI1eLy32KYPJVR-yXrIYr1rZSvqZ9-eji7H5LqgUQ3/s1600/Mississippi+River+2_Wikipedia.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="1155" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIERpevwTosSaRwiHmI1pA9W_fnQeAEQuW6y8GQxUqXysK7s6-iS6-astKa62UJnPA4yDBHesIdSwetIkNKp5sObBRQokuniHd5KjI1eLy32KYPJVR-yXrIYr1rZSvqZ9-eji7H5LqgUQ3/s320/Mississippi+River+2_Wikipedia.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River</span></a></div>
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So Google and Wikipedia both told me the same thing; the length must therefore be 2,320 miles. But I had also opened the link for Encyclopedia Britannica in a new tab, so I checked that entry:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi69p5NoF90xIH6viLvA1vw0wftU0_JGHTi-VkIdjL1qx5oxlqneFhI6KnduB6QUjTZu_WJx-wEo_HVHjvsu_T8V_2SW1R2CvgtiHxTK5Yho_MjdlOHCGEdKqtAUfuL81NAe_AWda-sACz_/s1600/Mississippi+River+4_Encyclopedia+Brittancia.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="1027" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi69p5NoF90xIH6viLvA1vw0wftU0_JGHTi-VkIdjL1qx5oxlqneFhI6KnduB6QUjTZu_WJx-wEo_HVHjvsu_T8V_2SW1R2CvgtiHxTK5Yho_MjdlOHCGEdKqtAUfuL81NAe_AWda-sACz_/s320/Mississippi+River+4_Encyclopedia+Brittancia.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Mississippi-River">https://www.britannica.com/place/Mississippi-River</a></span></div>
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Wait a minute...which is it? Is it 2,320 miles or 2,340?<br />
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I went back to Wikipedia, and checked the source (citation 11) for their claim of 2,320 miles.<br />
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Wikipedia is usually pretty trustworthy (and despite what some have claimed, <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/10/wikipedia-isnt-in-danger.html" target="_blank">its doom isn't actually impending</a>), so I'm inclined to go with the "2,320" figure.<br />
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Oh, the source for the 2,320-mile figure is the U.S. Geological Survey. I'm more inclined to believe U.S. government scientists over a British encyclopedia when it comes to the length of an <u>American</u> river. The source is an archived version of the page, so this is a trustworthy source that can't be changed on a whim:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikN-ojYb0RZt7I_yYfaEvOvZaU54_SnHObhyphenhyphentqDmU-l8dPox77Uqc2_EqZb_CQPp4E-SXrwMNYdVOePc2nIM9_nX9wo_736XpJtYcytrpXoJ8deK2seF0_EoQIkUXkytQpaL7t6SPEwf5k/s1600/Mississippi+River+3_USGS+%2528Wikipedia%2527s+source+for+the+2320+claim%2529.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="524" data-original-width="1345" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikN-ojYb0RZt7I_yYfaEvOvZaU54_SnHObhyphenhyphentqDmU-l8dPox77Uqc2_EqZb_CQPp4E-SXrwMNYdVOePc2nIM9_nX9wo_736XpJtYcytrpXoJ8deK2seF0_EoQIkUXkytQpaL7t6SPEwf5k/s320/Mississippi+River+3_USGS+%2528Wikipedia%2527s+source+for+the+2320+claim%2529.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090305045437/http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/riversofworld.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20090305045437/http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/riversofworld.html</a></span></div>
<br />
WHAT?!?! It clearly says 2,340!!! How did somebody type the wrong number into Wikipedia?! Right there, in black and white, the source says "2,340 miles." It's literally as simple as <i>copying a 4-digit number</i>!<br />
<br />
Doesn't anybody have any attention to detail?! Doesn't anybody take pride in their work?!<br />
<br />
Sigh...now I have to change my PowerPoint. But I better do some further checking before I write down the number, just to make sure that the "2,340" figure isn't <i>also</i> messed up!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Gfz8OpBhXi2ku7KQFTzEdjXxITUm3rBnwMcZwBdAk4fqixLVfbgMpaRBhmiIuStggsuI9ce3IviH804UoVe2mN2NFP9FK5h-xWlc5K70Tl4xq7Rrqzwuk4Ntccl_dpJvJGw_g5ZNc8Di/s1600/Mississippi+River+5_National+Park+Service.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="1188" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Gfz8OpBhXi2ku7KQFTzEdjXxITUm3rBnwMcZwBdAk4fqixLVfbgMpaRBhmiIuStggsuI9ce3IviH804UoVe2mN2NFP9FK5h-xWlc5K70Tl4xq7Rrqzwuk4Ntccl_dpJvJGw_g5ZNc8Di/s320/Mississippi+River+5_National+Park+Service.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_rivers_of_the_United_States_%28by_main_stem%29">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_rivers_of_the_United_States_%28by_main_stem%29</a></span></div>
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I should have known...it's not like there's a 2,500 mile-long tape measure that you could just run down the middle of the river to get a precise measurement. So what am I supposed to tell my students?...<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
_________________</div>
<br />
There's a lesson here. First, Wikipedia is clearly not always trustworthy. You know how your teachers always tell you never to cite Wikipedia? This experience, along with <a href="https://www.dailydot.com/unclick/amelia-bedelia-wikipedia-hoax/" target="_blank">stories like this one</a>, clearly illustrates why. If you want to ensure accuracy, you may not want to simply rely on the first thing that Google spits out...<br />
<br />
Unlike 30 years ago, there is now more information at our fingertips than we could possibly hope to check! All in all, this is probably a good thing, as it democratizes information and makes us less reliant on <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2014/mar/11/james-clappers-testimony-one-year-later/" target="_blank">a few sources that may have an agenda</a>, or on our <a href="http://www.humantruth.info/why_are_memories_unreliable.html" target="_blank">own unreliable memories</a>.<br />
<br />
However, the power of information—including sensitive personal information—<a href="https://medium.com/@WStaton85/information-as-a-weapon-63ef60b8ee96" target="_blank">makes us vulnerable</a>. As with any innovation, the free flow of information can be a double-edged sword.<br />
<br />
One consequence is that, in the face of an overwhelming cascade of knowledge, our critical thinking faculties will begin to shut down. Instead of asking ourselves, "Is this really true? Based on what evidence?" we will take the path of least resistance and simply say "Google says X, and Google is always right."<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBC7NGOEE7kVu2yHlERRQlqpai94F8BCrUMcPvHhfcW8LhZkRAHtivfOsO5ne1htPJ0ttkDJ-TYnB9LHj2Gj67Y39S4GDGVKpQyBflFDNFsv5UIHpjUnTTsV0NAVlm3x_3WLI9JYYfbSUg/s1600/Google-is-always-right-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="600" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBC7NGOEE7kVu2yHlERRQlqpai94F8BCrUMcPvHhfcW8LhZkRAHtivfOsO5ne1htPJ0ttkDJ-TYnB9LHj2Gj67Y39S4GDGVKpQyBflFDNFsv5UIHpjUnTTsV0NAVlm3x_3WLI9JYYfbSUg/s320/Google-is-always-right-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.demotivation.us/google-1244424.html">http://www.demotivation.us/google-1244424.html</a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
But clearly, Google <i>isn't</i> always right. That's why I <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/10/when-science-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">consistently spend</a> so much <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/01/what-you-think-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">time and effort</a> on <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-ai-apocalypse.html" target="_blank">combating hype</a> and <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/12/when-statistics-are-meaningless.html" target="_blank">emphasizing critical thinking</a>.<br />
<br />
Humans are often described as <a href="http://coglode.com/gem/cognitive-miser" target="_blank">cognitive misers</a>; given that we only have a limited amount of time, energy, and brainpower, it makes sense that we would not carefully scrutinize everything.<br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Finding the truth is difficult. Swallowing a lie is easy. Also, <a href="http://ordrespontane.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/brandolinis-law.html" target="_blank">Brandolini's Law</a>.</div>
<br />
But if you want the truth—if you <i>really</i> want the truth—gear up! The road ahead is hard, sometimes boring, and usually thankless (my students probably don't care whether it's 2,320 miles, 2,340 miles, 2,552 miles, or something else). And when you <i>do</i> find the truth, you'll probably discover that it's more complicated and nuanced than you expected.<br />
<br />
For example, Wikipedia is not always as untrustworthy as I implied above:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKBZPvowAmOxvXUSsKGIG6RPYIELPLna7Nue0CJ7MJsDOygHYLFmao9BUUEc3vHuQJ7TAWH7PzG3yY82CcFWejBNkmA_COpRZyZpikE7244SI2QjvK8nznAF-Yu7hGc9HL-EdaNMWRV3B-/s1600/Mississippi+River+6_Wikipedia+again.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="1153" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKBZPvowAmOxvXUSsKGIG6RPYIELPLna7Nue0CJ7MJsDOygHYLFmao9BUUEc3vHuQJ7TAWH7PzG3yY82CcFWejBNkmA_COpRZyZpikE7244SI2QjvK8nznAF-Yu7hGc9HL-EdaNMWRV3B-/s320/Mississippi+River+6_Wikipedia+again.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_rivers_of_the_United_States_%28by_main_stem%29"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_rivers_of_the_United_States_%28by_main_stem%29</span></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Oh, and in case you're curious</span>, there's <a href="https://www.history.com/news/ask-history/what-is-the-longest-river-in-the-world" target="_blank">debate over whether the Nile or the Amazon</a> is the longest river in the world, due to the uncertainty I referenced earlier in measuring the length of a river. The Missouri-Mississippi River system is the fourth-longest in the world, behind the Nile, the Amazon, and the Yangtze. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rivers_by_length" target="_blank">Wikipedia's list of the world's longest rivers</a> also does a good job of summarizing this uncertainty. <br />
<br />
But how many people actually read that stuff, rather than just skipping to the table and saying, "Ah, the Amazon River is the longest in the world!"<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSXCT6Q0IQRCnj4-PF_w7h92r8hz1lB62f1eHdLChNKj4CMqD7ZmVe4KnI4rWyR9PjfXz339VGTnNQYWg6QaBmRHBTAtjVG3uL2giG1ejOvQgSobMQHQvkZ3kU32Z8S7Arhoa2t4eeaOVO/s1600/believe-those-who-are-seeking-the-truth-doubt-those-who-find-it-quote-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSXCT6Q0IQRCnj4-PF_w7h92r8hz1lB62f1eHdLChNKj4CMqD7ZmVe4KnI4rWyR9PjfXz339VGTnNQYWg6QaBmRHBTAtjVG3uL2giG1ejOvQgSobMQHQvkZ3kU32Z8S7Arhoa2t4eeaOVO/s320/believe-those-who-are-seeking-the-truth-doubt-those-who-find-it-quote-1.jpg" width="248" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://img.picturequotes.com/2/47/46197/believe-those-who-are-seeking-the-truth-doubt-those-who-find-it-quote-1.jpg"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">http://img.picturequotes.com/2/47/46197/believe-those-who-are-seeking-the-truth-doubt-those-who-find-it-quote-1.jpg</span></a></div>
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<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">And yes, I double-checked: <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/11/14/seekers/" target="_blank">this quote actually is</a> from French writer Andr</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">é</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Gide...</span><br />
<br />
<br />
***<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wondering about the social media usage of actual college students? </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Check out <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results of this totally informal</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—but real</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">survey</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it, I review</span> some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
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<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-30946997584706492182017-12-28T18:01:00.000-05:002018-03-13T15:35:44.965-04:00...And the winner is! (Fall 2017)<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>...And the winner is... (Part II)</b> </div>
<br />
Which form of social media reigns supreme among college students today?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDKVw-pka681RGXrEAHsxOZR0SXCqcOUDUpnhUx_b5iS3n1hW_MrNLDE7pkmbh059iOIWFND_Fl9zQI8GMH5tYbLzxCzUBeNX5V4pdb3kqsbrTb7PKmXhGOSqT-q0uA-LFCdwD_iTuIClX/s1600/image-3034792_640.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDKVw-pka681RGXrEAHsxOZR0SXCqcOUDUpnhUx_b5iS3n1hW_MrNLDE7pkmbh059iOIWFND_Fl9zQI8GMH5tYbLzxCzUBeNX5V4pdb3kqsbrTb7PKmXhGOSqT-q0uA-LFCdwD_iTuIClX/s320/image-3034792_640.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
You may or may not have seen <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results I shared here</a> in April 2017. My Stats class at BGSU in Spring 2017 collected the data, and I used it to demonstrate the one-way ANOVA.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>If you haven't already seen it, <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">here's that summary</a>. As I explained in the original post, the survey was intentionally flawed, in order to give students practice at picking out problems/weaknesses in survey research:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
1. Only the endpoints on this scale were labeled: a 1 indicated "I never
use this form of social media" and a 7 indicated "I use this form of
social media multiple times per day." <br />
<br />
...how do we know that you and I interpret a value of "5" the same
way? Answer: we don't. Hence, this is a rather serious weakness. <br />
<br />
2. ...the sampling procedure is another major limitation of this study. For purposes of a class demonstration, having students ask their friends is fine. But this flawed sample severely limits the generalizability of the results...<br />
<br />
3. A third limitation is that I only included 5 forms of social media, rather than a more complete list...usage of LinkedIn, reddit, tumblr., Google+, flickr, SoundCloud, and other social networking sites were left out of the picture.</blockquote>
However, as I also noted in that post, it's better to have some data than to merely guess!<br />
<br />
If we want a glimpse into the social media usage habits of college students today, this provides a picture of that behavior. Perhaps it's <a href="http://laskoart.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/la_seine_au_point_du_jour.jpg" target="_blank">an impressionistic picture</a> that doesn't perfectly reflect reality, but it can still give us a good sense of the answer to our question.<br />
<br />
You may recall from <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the post in April 2017</a> that Snapchat was the most popular social media platform among students at a medium-sized state university in Ohio. Were the responses of my students' friends representative of the entire campus? Probably. But, like any assumption, this could certainly be wrong.<br />
<br />
As of the Fall 2017 semester, I'm teaching at <a href="https://www.lyon.edu/" target="_blank">Lyon College</a>, a small, private, liberal-arts school in Arkansas. Might these students have different social media habits than their state-school counterparts? Or perhaps, in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85vCozM-SsY" target="_blank">notoriously fickle world of social media</a>, might trends have changed over the past 6 months or so?<br />
<br />
So, here's the same survey, part 2, done in November 2017. Enjoy!<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Results</b></span><br />
<br />
Once again, <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/11UCKUc-JYuq23Pyjpf2sT6Yt9-7oE94f/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">I've posted the data</a> (in .csv format) for you to view and/or download for yourself.<br />
<br />
Recall that people responded on a scale of 1-7, with 1 being "I never use this form of social media" and 7 representing "I use this form of social media multiple times per day."<br />
<br />
As before, we'll lead off with the graph of the means, from JASP. <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">As you may recall</a>, this graph cannot be edited.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCNedoRyxnvbch_KW3v89T1GyPTl_UDuRUHoTcgemA2yHLJEYSuCq9i6nLhE36dJZkauKZknOflzySlJJDNSuOD-XO5iCzwqCuAxL6bv8QqjDfX0IPDAhFixEwEfYybaeOrRaQ-PLDmwu5/s1600/Results+graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="350" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCNedoRyxnvbch_KW3v89T1GyPTl_UDuRUHoTcgemA2yHLJEYSuCq9i6nLhE36dJZkauKZknOflzySlJJDNSuOD-XO5iCzwqCuAxL6bv8QqjDfX0IPDAhFixEwEfYybaeOrRaQ-PLDmwu5/s320/Results+graph.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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For reference, see the plot from Spring 2017 <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">here</a>. Note that the scale only goes up to 6 here rather than 7, so be aware that this graph is going to be more stretched-out vertically than the graph from April 2017. Don't blame me; blame the software! I'd fix it if I could...<br />
<br />
You don't have to worry about any such distortion for the descriptive stats:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2UhAC0IwyXn6OMvFZ-u_ZwVschrDMy5vN-GnCAq3F7LiSc8KaH0jx_4yLz1icm12Dt6SRG7ksy99fFnLUWQd-hwLNPAvy6otFAKONrcwylQDkJ0kyXqUgRyfM5vCJRJabgH_JfKYCDz_1/s1600/Descriptive+stats+Fall+2017.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="333" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2UhAC0IwyXn6OMvFZ-u_ZwVschrDMy5vN-GnCAq3F7LiSc8KaH0jx_4yLz1icm12Dt6SRG7ksy99fFnLUWQd-hwLNPAvy6otFAKONrcwylQDkJ0kyXqUgRyfM5vCJRJabgH_JfKYCDz_1/s320/Descriptive+stats+Fall+2017.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
So, between this table and the graph above, the finishing order should be clear:<br />
<ol>
<li>Snapchat</li>
<li>Instagram</li>
<li>Facebook</li>
<li>Twitter</li>
<li>Pinterest</li>
</ol>
<br />
Note that <i>N</i> = 50 here; in April 2017, <i>N</i> was 73. As before, I offered extra credit to my students for participation. For whatever reason, there happened to be fewer participants this time. Welcome to the real world of research!<br />
<br />
That said, I don't think that the difference between 50 and 73 is really that big. I would have liked to have 20 or 25 additional responses this time to maximize the similarity, but part of conducting ethical research is that <a href="https://hso.research.uiowa.edu/summary-belmont-report" target="_blank">you cannot compel people to participate</a>. In order to keep the procedure comparable, I presented the opportunity in November the same way I did in April.<br />
<br />
Highlights:<br />
<ul>
<li>As in the spring, Snapchat is the winner. Twitter comes in below the midpoint, and Pinterest is least-used among college students.<br /> </li>
<li>The mean scores here were slightly lower than they were in April, with the exception of a very slightly higher score for usage of Pinterest. Since it's up from 2.71 to 2.8, I'd chalk that up to <a href="https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/129885/why-does-increasing-the-sample-size-lower-the-sampling-variance" target="_blank">variance due to the smaller sample</a>, and/or <a href="https://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/regrmean.php" target="_blank">regression to the mean</a>.</li>
<ul>
<li>Of these comparisons (<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">Insta<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>Spring</sub></span>— Insta<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>Fall</sub></span>,
Snap<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>Spring</sub></span>— Snap<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>Fall</sub></span>, etc.</span>), there is only one change that is statistically significant. Can you determine which one?<br /> </li>
</ul>
<li>Overall, the pattern we observe here is very similar to <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the pattern in April 2017</a>. So apparently no semester-to-semester changes in social media popularity!<br /> </li>
<li>Once again, SDs were around 2, except for the higher variance (SD = ~2.5) for Twitter usage. This suggests that students either use Twitter a lot—or not at all! So it seems that Twitter has high engagement among those who do have accounts. <br /> </li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A one-way ANOVA shows a statistically significant effect, </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>F</i>(4, 245) = 9.563, <i>p</i> < .001, partial<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"> <span style="font-size: small;">η</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><sup>2</sup>
= <span style="font-family: inherit;">.135. </span></span></span></span></span></span>This is shown below. <span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
</li>
</ul>
<span id="goog_1704953072"></span><span id="goog_1704953073"></span><span id="goog_1704953074"></span><span id="goog_1704953075"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb3JHt8N3NoZgycom5rba6TtxrMOrFArqVC3keE4hmLlVtRdN7LbUsEIRu0Axb_SqjR3lCrtSlsTJImv862YoFLbP2cGnLK5N5PGTAW5TqugsCAsCYUr-u-q7I6Ipdtib2m1QeO7e_zSpo/s1600/ANOVA+Fall+2017.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="650" height="121" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb3JHt8N3NoZgycom5rba6TtxrMOrFArqVC3keE4hmLlVtRdN7LbUsEIRu0Axb_SqjR3lCrtSlsTJImv862YoFLbP2cGnLK5N5PGTAW5TqugsCAsCYUr-u-q7I6Ipdtib2m1QeO7e_zSpo/s400/ANOVA+Fall+2017.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-J8VqeZR3dXyPBoueA2zTE-NLVvnAkvKZ4LpYJoA3xqf4gX0AOAutpny0lc1M-ZMCCscRCnWux1qdxF8RyLJ789kelZC7uMooHjauWHJNCHt6L13BmP2jPLxTv_E4lMOl3UK8Z452T2Xi/s1600/ANOVA_post+hoc+Fall+2017.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="572" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-J8VqeZR3dXyPBoueA2zTE-NLVvnAkvKZ4LpYJoA3xqf4gX0AOAutpny0lc1M-ZMCCscRCnWux1qdxF8RyLJ789kelZC7uMooHjauWHJNCHt6L13BmP2jPLxTv_E4lMOl3UK8Z452T2Xi/s400/ANOVA_post+hoc+Fall+2017.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The post-hoc analysis reveals a number of significant differences. One comparison (Facebook vs. Snapchat) does not <i>quite</i> reach the traditional alpha level of .05. Should we therefore <a href="https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ed/64/8f/ed648ff83c3557d1e76822330be32025.jpg" target="_blank">conclude that this difference</a> isn't worthy of note? <br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2288-2-8" target="_blank">Multiple correction procedures reduce the power</a> to detect an effect (this is true whether you're using the Bonferroni, the Tukey, or the Scheff<span style="font-family: "liberation" serif , serif;">é</span> procedure), so, given that an ANOVA already showed a significant difference, you would arguably be justified in simply running a series of <i>t</i> tests, or Fisher's LSD, instead of an adjustment like Tukey's procedure. <br /><br />I used Tukey here, simply because it's both conventional and easy. But if I were to do this for anything beyond intellectual curiosity, educational demonstrations, and a blog—I'd think pretty intently about which correction procedure, if any, to use.<br /> </li>
<li>Furthermore, I've <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/" target="_blank">already made my case</a> that <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/02/stat-ception-what-you-think-you-know.html" target="_blank">statistical significance is overblown</a>, so if my own personal money were involved (for example, if I'm advertising to college students), I'd be apt to take careful note of the difference between Snapchat and Facebook usage—regardless of whether that difference crosses the arbitrary threshold of .05!</li>
</ul>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
_________________</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Remember, if you're interested in a more nuanced analysis, you can <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/11UCKUc-JYuq23Pyjpf2sT6Yt9-7oE94f/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">download the .csv file</a> and run the analyses yourself!<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">recommend using JASP</a> (my analysis, shown above, was done with <a href="https://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">JASP</a>), which is <a href="http://blog.efpsa.org/2015/09/01/introducing-jasp-a-free-and-intuitive-statistics-software-that-might-finally-replace-spss/" target="_blank">free of cost and open-source</a>! Another alternative is <a href="https://www.jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, which is very similar, and also <a href="http://blog.efpsa.org/2017/03/23/introducing-jamovi-free-and-open-statistical-software-combining-ease-of-use-with-the-power-of-r/" target="_blank">free and open-source</a> (but not quite as well-developed yet).<br />
<br />
Each program has its own advantages and disadvantages, of course. But I think the benefits of these programs far outweigh the limitations! I use JASP for teaching undergraduate stats, to pretty good effect.</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-83650687131486204522017-11-08T21:37:00.000-05:002017-11-08T21:38:09.612-05:00#celebratefirstgen<span id="goog_322690899"></span><span id="goog_322690900"></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxkcNrSpesFKHBf0dSSDDhBDWcrYvcPGJ1EduaPLpwWBcjVcFrOIR32GZtmpoa9nqpUJvEKFhlC8e7Op75JvXZUMjJ0UtgEuh4L1waoH-hq0StBKAdmYBl3fU8ysPq9iRAbFSjhuctsho/s1600/celebrate+first+gen+IMG_20171107_163245951.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxkcNrSpesFKHBf0dSSDDhBDWcrYvcPGJ1EduaPLpwWBcjVcFrOIR32GZtmpoa9nqpUJvEKFhlC8e7Op75JvXZUMjJ0UtgEuh4L1waoH-hq0StBKAdmYBl3fU8ysPq9iRAbFSjhuctsho/s320/celebrate+first+gen+IMG_20171107_163245951.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="https://www.lyon.edu/" target="_blank">Lyon College</a>, where I teach, participated in today's inaugural nationwide celebration of first-generation college students. <a href="http://diverseeducation.com/article/104637/" target="_blank">This was orchestrated by the Council for Opportunity in Education</a>, and designated for November 8th in honor of the 52nd anniversary of 1965's Higher Education Act.<br />
<br />
Lyon's event, which involves collecting these cards and making them into a wall that demonstrates the experiences and values of first-generation college students. Since I'm a first-gen college student, I participated in this event by filling out a card.<br />
<br />
You should be able to see my card above, but in case that doesn't work properly on some people's devices, I've also put the text below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As a 1st-gen college student, I value the role of education in
creating </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">a better-informed citizenry and pushing the frontiers of knowledge. A liberal arts </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">education helped me reach my potential, and
now I'm going for a PhD!</span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
***</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wondering about the social media usage of actual college students? </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Check out <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results of this totally informal</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—but real</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">survey</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it, I review</span> some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
</div>
</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-30557004135294898622017-10-26T21:40:00.000-04:002018-03-09T21:17:33.411-05:00Is Wikipedia in crisis?<br />
<br />
A week ago, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/wikipedias-fate-shows-how-the-web-endangers-knowledge/" target="_blank">WIRED published an opinion piece</a> lamenting the decline of the pursuit of knowledge, and claiming that Wikipedia is in crisis.<br />
<br />
I saw the headline, "Social Media is Killing Wikipedia," in an e-mail from LinkedIn. The link led to a brief summary of the article (not the article itself...) along with an extensive discussion chain, complete with the hashtag #WikipediaFuture.<br />
<br />
Cute.<br />
<br />
I clicked it because I suspected the headline would prove to be an assertion that was either exaggerated or simply untrue. In essence, clickbait. <br />
<br />
Alas, I wasn't surprised. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/330f.gif"><img alt="http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/330f.gif" class="decoded" src="https://www.reactiongifs.com/r/330f.gif" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
[But hey, I clicked it, so I guess it worked...]<br />
<br />
But it's worth asking: is Wikipedia <i>actually</i> threatened? Is it really in "existential crisis," as claimed in the WIRED article?<br />
<ul>
<li>It's the #5 most heavily-trafficked website worldwide according to Alexa rankings </li>
<li>The WIRED article admits that it's monetarily stable as well. </li>
</ul>
So, pray tell, upon what basis can we conclude that Wikipedia is facing a crisis that threatens its very existence?<br />
<br />
Because the <i>growth rate</i> of new contributors has flattened. <br />
<br />
Is a flattening growth rate--NOT a decline in the number of contributors, but a flattening <i>growth rate</i>--indicative of a problem? Or have we simply found the ceiling of the number of people who are willing to spend time and effort editing Wikipedia for free?<br />
<br />
Note that a "flattening" growth rate means that there is still growth! It's just not happening <i>as fast</i> as it used to. See the growth curve pictured below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwdVmdhrIc6vWkarz_nbtuhd_a9jbPPwxSZv2Asi_prEIYBqB3nAUhENa1KX94KPoglzLHY4NhwsMRa7tX6Mavon5mEuA5FVgK7t8jxw5W9nkeTgUj6F96TgJzIgsM7b3NRbVLPgG3GbTT/s1600/TC1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="400" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwdVmdhrIc6vWkarz_nbtuhd_a9jbPPwxSZv2Asi_prEIYBqB3nAUhENa1KX94KPoglzLHY4NhwsMRa7tX6Mavon5mEuA5FVgK7t8jxw5W9nkeTgUj6F96TgJzIgsM7b3NRbVLPgG3GbTT/s400/TC1.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<a href="http://mktg.biotek.com/TekTalk/2008/0208/tek_corner.htm"><span style="font-size: x-small;">http://mktg.biotek.com/TekTalk/2008/0208/tek_corner.htm</span></a></div>
<br />
Note that this curve indicates that growth of E. coli is slowing down, NOT that E. coli is dying and being eradicated from the untreated well. There are only so many micro-organisms that can survive in a particular area; once we approach that cap, the growth rate will slow. Unfortunately, that trend in the growth rate doesn't mean that the E. coli will vanish from the afflicted well.<br />
<br />
If you don't like to think about icky, deadly infectious agents, then think of the issue like this:<br />
<ul>
<li>Let's say I create a new website that depends on contributions from a community. Let's call it WorldCyclopedia.</li>
<li>There are about 7 billion people in the world. </li>
<li>Assume that all of them have Internet access, are healthy and have the physical and mental ability to contribute to WorldCyclopedia (an assumption that in no way reflects reality, but imagine for a second that it's the case).</li>
<li>What happens to the growth rate of contributors to WorldCyclopedia once 6.8 billion people have signed up and contributed?</li>
</ul>
That's right...we're approaching the maximum number of possible contributors to WorldCyclopedia. We'd therefore expect the growth rate to slow way, way down. In statistics, this is called a 'ceiling effect.'<br />
<br />
Now, in reality, not everybody wants to be bothered. Not everybody wants to participate, or trusts the website or those who run it. Not everybody has an Internet connection. Not everybody is in the physical or mental condition to contribute. Heck, not everybody can <i>read</i>!<br />
<br />
So, we wouldn't ACTUALLY expect 7 billion contributors to WorldCyclopedia. The <i>absolute</i> ceiling is 7 billion people, but a more realistic expectation is to have a few million active contributors worldwide, and maybe only a few thousand who are actually curating the site every day. <br />
<br />
Do people expect a constant growth rate to last forever?! That's the whole premise of the argument that Wikipedia is in danger: despite the fact that it's one of the 5 most popular sites on the World Wide Web, and despite the fact that it's receiving more monetary donations than it ever has, it's in crisis because the growth rate is slowing down?!?!?!<br />
<br />
That premise is fatally flawed. In the LinkedIn discussion, commenters are searching for explanations for a "problem" that doesn't exist. Just another example of people failing to be properly skeptical of a claim. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit#Bullshit_asymmetry_principle" target="_blank">Brandolini's Law</a> applies quite well here, I think...<br />
<br />
I'm not worried about #WikipediaFuture, and you shouldn't be, either.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
***</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wondering about the social media usage of actual college students? </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Check out <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">the results of this totally informal</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—but real</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">—</a></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/and-winner-is.html" target="_blank">survey</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it, I review</span> some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-51052151668456963782017-10-02T11:26:00.000-04:002018-06-26T20:21:56.500-04:00When Science Is Wrong<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>Don't Drink the Kool-Aid!</b></div>
<br />
Unfortunately, not every claim by a scientist is true: <br />
<a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/a-dig-through-old-files-reminds-me-why-ie28099m-so-critical-of-science/">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/a-dig-through-old-files-reminds-me-why-ie28099m-so-critical-of-science/</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://blog.magicshop.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Wrong-advice.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="http://blog.magicshop.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Wrong-advice.jpg" border="0" data-original-height="233" data-original-width="400" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpj9WYKm7CjQQYl9RjN7sxD8HTkQc3H3vL1vs1RWNUBr1GUtQcMgGNGkG3_debjIK88fgaFMOsHBmlHcw-Q6J_FUxkWmxWFq80oPsYZ46zFI6OC8rxS8c4YhKI7_Vra2tmUnQAAsVKoa8r/s320/Wrong.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://blog.magicshop.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Wrong-advice.jpg" target="_blank">http://blog.magicshop.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Wrong-advice.jpg</a></span></div>
<br />
Let's take a lesson from history, folks...<br />
<br />
To expound a bit on this notion [because, hey...that's what professors do!], think back a few hundred years:<br />
<ol>
<li><u>Everyone knew that the Earth was stationary.</u><br /><br />It makes sense, right? If you stand still on a day that isn't windy, you get the sense that you're not moving! So, therefore, the Earth must not be moving, either...<br /><br />...except that we know that it is! Earth revolves around the Sun at a rate of 18.5 miles per second—that translates to 66,600 miles per hour [for those who use the metric system, that's a little over 107,000 kph]! <br /><br />Not only that, but the Sun is in an arm of the Milky Way Galaxy (an arm that moves around the center of the galaxy), and the Milky Way itself is moving away from other galaxies. So, even when you're standing still, you're actually moving through space at an <i>extremely</i> fast rate, relative to other galaxies! <br /> </li>
<li><u>For a long time, doctors and scientists refused to believe that invisible entities caused people to be sick. </u><br /><br />Eventually, however, the field of medicine came around, and acknowledged that microscopic organisms like bacteria and viruses are often responsible for sickness. This revelation that infectious agents are making us ill allows us to explain sickness—and, therefore, to more effectively treat these illnesses!<br /> </li>
<li><u>Everybody knew that maggots came from rotting meat, or that worms fell out of the sky when it rained.</u> <br /><br />People all over the world observed these phenomena, over and over again! [See, we have a directly observable phenomenon, as well as numerous replications! Therefore, science! Right?...]<br /><br /><a href="https://www.chemheritage.org/distillations/magazine/man-made-a-history-of-synthetic-life" target="_blank">Aristotle advanced the theory</a> of <i>spontaneous generation</i> to explain such observations as the sudden appearance of maggots in rotting meat or the appearance of fleas in dusty areas. For about 2000 years, this was the prevailing idea to explain these phenomena. <br /><br />Thanks to well-designed experiments by Pasteur and others, however, this idea was <i>finally</i> disproven in the 1800s! The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spontaneous_generation" target="_blank">Wikipedia page on spontaneous generation</a> is a good, concise read on the matter. <br /> </li>
<li><u>Gravity is a sort of magnetic force between objects with mass. </u><br /><br />Einstein-ian gravity is distinct from the classical Newtonian conception of gravity (it's outside my wheelhouse, but I'll give it a go): as an object with mass moves through space, the dimension of space-time itself is distorted. The more massive an object is, the stronger the effect. Therefore, a very massive object (like a planet, or a star) doesn't <i>attract</i> other objects through an independent force called gravity so much as objects are <i>pushed</i> toward that object by the distortion of space-time around that massive object. <br /><br />As an analogy: imagine that you've got a baseball with a piece of tape around the surface. The tape is not tightly wound; rather, there are places that you could fit your finger between the tape and the surface of the ball. Now, you throw the baseball at a trampoline. What will happen to the tape at the point where it contacts the trampoline?<br /><br />Right: the tape will be pushed closer to the surface of the ball. Similarly, the warping of space-time around a very massive object—like...oh, say, the planet Earth—pushes objects toward the center of that object. <br /><br />So, according to a relativistic understanding of physics, we're not being <i>pulled</i> toward the center of the Earth by a magnet-like force called "gravity." Instead, we're being <i>pushed</i> toward the center of the Earth by the very fabric of reality itself!<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">
*If there are any mistakes or misunderstandings in the above explanation, they are mine alone! I hope that any readers who are trained in physics will inform me of any such mistakes, so that I can correct them!*</div>
<br />I think this concept is explained well and concisely <a href="http://www.einstein-online.info/elementary/generalRT/GeomGravity" target="_blank">here</a>, and interested parties can find a longer and more technical explanation, with more historical context, <a href="https://einstein.stanford.edu/SPACETIME/spacetime2.html" target="_blank">here</a>. <br /> </li>
<li>See my post at Psych Central on the self-correcting nature of science: <a href="https://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2016/10/05/the-powerless-pose-how-the-power-pose-debacle-illustrates-good-science-at-work/?all=1">https://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2016/10/05/the-powerless-pose-how-the-power-pose-debacle-illustrates-good-science-at-work/?all=1</a><ul>
<li>Speaking of errors, I made one in that article: Amy Cuddy has NOT recanted her position on power posing; it was lead author Dana Carney. Oops. <br /><br />Thankfully, a couple commenters were quick to point out my mistake. See? A self-correcting process...</li>
</ul>
</li>
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Check out this list as well: <a href="http://list25.com/25-science-facts-that-were-proven-wrong/">http://list25.com/25-science-facts-that-were-proven-wrong/</a><br />
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***</div>
However, these facts should <b><u><i>not</i></u></b> be used to condemn the scientific method or to promote ideas that have been falsified through testing: <a href="http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Science_was_wrong_before">http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Science_was_wrong_before</a><br />
<br />
The
whole idea of this post is that we need to be skeptical! That doesn't mean we should disbelieve <i>everything</i>, but it does mean that we need to thoroughly examine the evidence.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, many people just assume "Oh, a scientist said it, so it must be true!" Clearly, this is not the case. So don't just believe everything you hear; look at the quality of the evidence and the number of studies that found the same thing.That's a more difficult and time-consuming process than just believing the first thing you read...but if you want the truth, that's what is necessary. <br />
<br />
Scientific knowledge is <u>
always</u> subject to revision based on new results. Anybody who says otherwise is wrong. You'll sometimes see respected scientists in popular videos or press releases, stating (or implying) that their study <i>proves</i> something—but this is just an example of these people getting carried away. They're supposed to know better... <br />
<br />
An <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/11/14/seekers/" target="_blank">old adage by Andre Gide</a> applies to evaluating popular claims of science, as well as many other domains of life: <br />
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-63406002774196139162017-09-06T19:20:00.000-04:002017-09-12T22:08:33.368-04:00What is 'rational?'<br />
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I left a comment at a very interesting blog post at <a href="http://www.ivigilante.com/where-rationality-ends/">http://www.ivigilante.com/where-rationality-ends/</a>. Here's what I wrote:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">An interesting article! I think that you brought up rationality in a
sense that has more to do with academic notions of what is “ideal” than
with the real world. It’s understandable, since most formal education
(particularly in economics departments!) focuses on this notion!</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Herbert Simon was, as far as I’m aware, the first academic to point
out that expecting people to act ‘rationally’ is futile. He won a Nobel
Prize for his work on bounded rationality, too, so it’s not like his
work went unrecognized. A brief summary: <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/13350892" rel="nofollow">http://www.economist.com/node/13350892</a></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As <a href="http://www.paulmichaelcohen.com/why-chess-tells-us-that-rationality-is-impossible/" target="_blank">this page</a> correctly observes, people’s behavior often fails to adhere to even the
most basic principles of logic, which leaves humans looking pretty
stupid IF you believe that logic–i.e. ‘rationality’–is the best standard
to which we should compare behavior. <br /> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But Gerd Gigerenzer and others (including me) argue the opposite!
Rather than saying, ‘Gee, people are pretty dumb because they don’t make
decisions the way a computer would make a decision,’ we argue instead
that people use shortcuts that are typically well-suited for the real
world of vast uncertainty and severe time pressure. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Some interesting reading on Gigerenzer’s approach, which he calls “ecological rationality:” <a href="https://hbr.org/2014/06/instinct-can-beat-analytical-thinking" rel="nofollow">https://hbr.org/2014/06/instinct-can-beat-analytical-thinking</a> and <a href="https://www.edge.org/conversation/gerd_gigerenzer-smart-heuristics" rel="nofollow">https://www.edge.org/conversation/gerd_gigerenzer-smart-heuristics</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />In the instance of the gas station that you described above, I’d say
you were acting in an ecologically rational manner, probably using a
heuristic. I’d guess that your deliberation went something like this:<br />
“This old-timey gas station has ridiculously long lines. I hate long
lines! Screw it, I’ll go elsewhere and pay a bit more for my gas. The
savings of about $1.00 per fill-up isn’t worth my time and aggravation.”</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />A standard economic model would require that you sit down and
calculate whether the savings of $1 or $2 is <i>actually</i> worth your time
and aggravation. Which would, of course, require that you assigned a
numerical value to your aggravation, knew how much time you’d spend
waiting, and how much of that waiting time you’d actually spend on side
hustles (vs. something unproductive), how much money you’d make from the
time spent on your side hustle, etc…</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />When it’s spelled out like that, it becomes painfully obvious that nobody behaves like “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_economicus" target="_blank">homo economicus</a>,”
because performing such actions is, in itself, terribly inefficient–not
to mention far more imprecise than big-time thinkers would like to
admit [i.e. how much IS your aggravation worth? And what if you estimate
a 15-minute wait, but it’s actually a 25-minute wait, which causes
extra frustration? <i>How much</i> extra frustration would that cause, and what
negative effects would that stress have on your health? And, more to the
point, how much would it cost to address those negative health effects?
Because, remember, we need numbers in order to make the equation work…].</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />So, to the point of your article: if you buy into Gigerenzer’s
notions, rational thought often DOESN’T require complexity–as long as
you’re holding people to the standard of ecological rationality, rather
than logical-mathematical rationality. </span></span></blockquote>
<br />
The example above illustrates how ridiculous it is to expect people to make 'rational,' calculated decisions <i>every time they're faced with a choice</i>. Can you imagine stopping to do a calculation like this every time you had to do something?! You'd never accomplish anything, because you'd suffer from "paralysis by analysis."<br />
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<br />
Thus, assuming that your goal is to be productive, it is therefore irrational to be rational!!!<br />
<br />
To use the above example of waiting in a long line in order to save $0.10 per gallon on gas, you'd have to quantify everything: how much is your time worth? How much is your frustration worth? How much gas would your car would use at idle while you wait in line for a pump to open up? What is the 'opportunity cost' of spending time waiting in line for a pump, waiting to pay at the counter, and trying to merge back onto the highway? Furthermore, as another commenter noted at the above article by <i>I, Vigilante</i>, what is the potential cost—in money, in time, and in trouble—of credit-card skimming, or the risk of total identity theft?<br />
<br />
By the very nature of calculation, you need to fill in numbers here. But how can you quantify frustration in monetary terms? The very act of filling in this kind of equation requires enough guesswork to make the entire procedure an exercise in futility!<br />
<br />
That's a hidden fact about math: it requires certainty about each term in the equation. Once you introduce guesswork, the equation becomes meaningless. It will still give you an answer, but to quote a popular proverb on the subject: "Junk in, junk out."<br />
<br />
Essentially, acting in an ecologically rational manner is <b>to adapt your behavior to suit the situation</b>. Since every situation has different characteristics, it is foolish to behave the same way in all situations<span style="font-size: small;">!</span> <br />
<br />
There are times in which deliberation and care are necessary before embarking on a course of action; there are other times in which quick, decisive action is needed. It is therefore impossible, on a practical level, to know in advance which kind of approach is best for solving a particular problem. One must first identify the nature of the problem, and any important features that may make this particular problem unique/different from similar situations one has already faced.<br />
<br />
<br />
Academics tend to dislike such arguments, since this renders it impossible for researchers to determine in advance what the "correct" answer should be. After all, a researcher needs to present his or her ideas to skeptical peers! So it is far more defensible to tell your peers: "The correct answer is X, because this equation, based on principles of formal logic, has determined that the correct answer is X." <br />
<br />
After all, the above approach has the appearance of airtight inevitability! If you say, "This equation yields X, therefore, the correct answer is X," you're much less likely to spark a heated debate than if you introduce the obvious subjectivity of "Situation P requires this equation, whereas Situation Q requires that equation. Since here, we have Situation P, this equation is necessary, so the correct answer is X. But if we changed these features, we'd have Situation Q, and the correct answer would be Y." An audience member could easily challenge you by objecting that we don't really have Situation P—we actually have Situation Q, or maybe Situation R. This debate could derail your entire presentation and make you look silly in front of a room full of your peers at a conference!<br />
<br />
But is the point of research to avoid disagreement, or to advance knowledge?... <br />
<br />
My overarching point is this: when academic research demonstrates that most people arrive at the wrong answer to a question, the participants' errors may be an artifact of the research process, NOT something inherently wrong with the human mind!<br />
<br />
Next time a researcher tries to tell you that you're irrational, you shouldn't necessarily believe it...<br />
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-31202811464619749092017-08-09T15:37:00.000-04:002017-09-12T22:09:13.357-04:00Multiple Regression Explained<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
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<b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">How to interpret multiple regression</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Regression
is useful for making a predictive model. Let's say there's a positive
linear correlation between </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
but you suspect that Factors </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
also contribute to Outcome </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">. </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Make up a story</span></span></span>—<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">say, that Factors </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
represent intelligence, persistence, and amount of sleep per night
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
refers to a course grade.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So,
to test the relative impacts of Factors </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
on Outcome </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">,
you can feed each factor into a regression model, and test whether
each factor increases the fit. That is, a correlation between Factor
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
and Outcome </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
yields a Pearson's </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>r</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">of</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">.64</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">and</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>R2</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">of
.4096. </span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">But, when you run a regression</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">testing
the effect of</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Factors</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>and</b></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">on
Outcome </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">,
you find an </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>R2</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">of
.5625, with</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">a
significant change in the </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>R2</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">value.
That</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">means
that Factors </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">and
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>together</b></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">do
a better job of</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">explaining
the relationship than Factor </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">alone.</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Then,
you run a regression with Factors</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">,
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">,
and </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">together,
and find</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">an
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>R2</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">of
.5929, with no significant change</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">—</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">this
means that Factor </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">does
not help</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">to
explain the relationship.</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Outcome
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">is
due mostly to Factors </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>K</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">and
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>L</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">;
Factor </span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>M</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">is
an</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">unimportant</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">predictor
of</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Outcome
</span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>N</i></span></span></span><span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">.</span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span class="st"><i>Voilà</i></span>! There's regression in a nutshell! </span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-variant: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">And, if you're confused about the math...remember in middle school or high school math, when you learned about "rise over run" and learned the formula y = <i>m</i>x + b? Yeah, that's a simple linear regression. With multiple regression, you can add multiple terms, such that y = </span></span></span></span></span><i>a</i>x<sub>1</sub>
+ <i>b</i>x<sub>2</sub> + <i>c</i>x<sub>3</sub>...+ z. But it's still the same concept, just with more predictors than that lone "<i>m</i>x" term.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it</span>, there are some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs available now! I review them <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
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Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-5630311817475358172017-08-05T11:32:00.000-04:002017-09-12T22:09:04.786-04:00When to use a chi-square<div align="center" class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>When
to use a chi-square</b></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Not clear about when you should use a chi-square vs. when to use a <i>t</i> test? </span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">First, you should check out my free, downloadable PDF, <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">A Practical Guide to Psych Stats</a>. </span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Now that that's out of the way</span></span>—<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">if you're still not sure, how about a tasty example? </span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://68.media.tumblr.com/df823e9a5429bc683f0d56b95b8d8d80/tumblr_oi945q8yMm1tsozubo1_1280.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://68.media.tumblr.com/df823e9a5429bc683f0d56b95b8d8d80/tumblr_oi945q8yMm1tsozubo1_1280.gif" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://68.media.tumblr.com/df823e9a5429bc683f0d56b95b8d8d80/tumblr_oi945q8yMm1tsozubo1_1280.gif"><span style="font-size: x-small;">https://68.media.tumblr.com/df823e9a5429bc683f0d56b95b8d8d80/tumblr_oi945q8yMm1tsozubo1_1280.gif</span></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's say that we want to know whether a bag of Original Skittles has a truly
random distribution of colors. If so, we’d expect to find roughly
equal numbers of red, green, purple, yellow, and orange Skittles, right? </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">A
chi-square goodness-of-fit test [that is, a one-variable chi-square]
can help us evaluate this. If there are 18 red, 13 green, 18 purple, 19 yellow, and 17 orange, the chi-square goodness-of-fit test tells us whether this distribution is different enough from an even distribution of 17 apiece (85 Skittles / 5 colors) that we can reject the notion that the colors are evenly distributed. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">If you're really curious about my made-up numbers, by the way, here's a straightforward, easy-to-use online calculator to help you: <a href="http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/goodnessoffit/Default2.aspx">http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/goodnessoffit/Default2.aspx</a> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">***</span></div>
<div align="left" class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Now, let's say
we’re looking for differences in the proportion of red Skittles to
the other colors in a bag of Original vs. a bag of Tropical Skittles. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/Skittles-Tropical-Small.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="270" data-original-width="600" height="144" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/Skittles-Tropical-Small.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/Skittles-Tropical-Small.jpg"><span style="font-size: x-small;">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/Skittles-Tropical-Small.jpg</span></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In this case, we have two categorical variables [Original vs. Tropical Skittles,
<i>and</i> unequal distribution of colors], so we would need a chi-square test
for independence. The additional category makes the calculation a little more complex (but not if you use statistical software to handle the dirty work! 😊), but ultimately, we're looking at the same thing as before: are there roughly equal numbers of each type Skittles in each bag?</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2023627486136613819" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2023627486136613819" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In case you missed it</span>, there are some fantastic, easy-to-use, and FREE stats programs available now! I review them <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div>
</div>
<div align="left" class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more help explaining statistical concepts and when to use them, </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">please download my freely available PDF guide <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">here</a>!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjV0E4X0EyeHVOSlU" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjUzJ2a0FXbHVxaXc" border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJRFfxl-NQqTJDfWOivEhvBZNCwP_H3bP66VFEFG02IgUJjSoEEDTeeFdjqkyhHCa-RUpjf8_TkJIo6e77paTsFG_tkxOmC8WursnrlNVqDi32kVPxIJ1TM01Lt2X0edbWXcZLUmEWLw_-/s320/Capture.JPG" title="A practical guide to statistics for psychology" width="320" /></a></div>
</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-85465521063010881792017-07-26T10:37:00.000-04:002017-09-12T22:09:37.268-04:00The AI Apocalypse?<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>The AI Apocalypse?</b></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Is AI</span>—<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">artificial intelligence</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">—hype or substance? Can machines think? Can they ever </span></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">achieve consciousness? Will the AI "Singularity" eventually destroy us all?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Ultron2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="379" data-original-width="250" height="320" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Ultron2013.jpg" width="211" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Image of Ultron from <a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Ultron2013.jpg">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Ultron2013.jpg</a></span></div>
<br />
I think it's hype. Movies like "Avengers: Age of Ultron," combined with the bold predictions of "futurists," keep the idea in the public consciousness...but those same futurists have repeatedly predicted that we were 10-20 years away from inventing AI <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intelligence#The_golden_years_1956.E2.80.931974" target="_blank">for several decades</a>. <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">With a <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/19/great-moments-in-failed-predictions/" target="_blank">record like this</a>, why should we believe bold futuristic predictions now? Also, Herbert Simon, who made one such prediction in 1965, was brilliant--as evidenced by his <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1978/press.html" target="_blank">1978 Nobel Prize in Economics</a>--and his some of his ideas inform my own research! Nonetheless, his statement was, in hindsight, quite wrong!</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Such predictions are bound to fail, because you can never know whether the pace of innovation will stay the same, speed up, or slow down. Something like AI is dependent upon many things, such as advances in processor capabilities, advances in programming, a number of brilliant minds collaborating and competing to solve the problem (which is largely a function of demand for the problem to be solved)—all of which requires funding, which must be sustained for an indefinite period of time! Predicting all of these factors is a fool's errand!<br /><br />You never know what the future holds, so it's both simple-minded and arrogant to try to predict what will happen 10 or 20 years from now! </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Why that doesn't stop people from making such predictions publicly? Because when you make a bold prediction that something unexpected will happen within a given time frame, that gets people's attention! And attention often precedes professional accolades, money, or other desirable consequences.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
***</div>
I've long been of the opinion that computers don't <i>think</i> in any real sense. They're input-output machines, nothing more. Computers 'think' in the same sense that a light switch 'thinks'...it does exactly what it's told to do, when it's told to do it.<br />
<br />
Though I've argued about this with a number of academically-inclined people, this isn't at all how thinking works in people, or in animals more complex than a worm.<br />
<br />
The fact is that we don't understand how consciousness, or really even complex thought, occurs. So how can we reproduce it in a completely linear input-output machine like a computer? <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">People who </span><span style="font-size: small;"><i>actually</i></span><span style="font-size: small;">
work in machine learning say that the popular understanding of
AI—fueled by the predictions by media-savvy 'futurists,'
fawning articles by tech journalists, and Hollywood [which is
notorious for taking an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limitless_%28film%29">interesting
but faux-intellectual idea</a> that has not even a grain of truth and
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_%282014_film%29">milking
it endlessly</a>]—is so far removed from reality that most people
wouldn't recognize <i>actual</i> AI if the ghost of Alan Turing
himself knocked them over with it! </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">See:</span><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://approximatelycorrect.com/2017/03/28/the-ai-misinformation-epidemic/"><span style="font-size: small;">http://approximatelycorrect.com/2017/03/28/the-ai-misinformation-epidemic/</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13974304"><span style="font-size: small;">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13974304</span></a></li>
</ul>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">I feel vindicated. </span></div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-6029987157455438212017-06-12T14:26:00.002-04:002017-09-12T22:09:59.776-04:00Interesting links about stats<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>Interesting links about stats</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I've compiled a few links regarding interesting (advanced, but interesting) statistical topics. Here they are: </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<a href="http://www.nicebread.de/interactive-exploration-of-a-priors-impact/">http://www.nicebread.de/interactive-exploration-of-a-priors-impact/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.nicebread.de/whats-the-probability-that-a-significant-p-value-indicates-a-true-effect/">http://www.nicebread.de/whats-the-probability-that-a-significant-p-value-indicates-a-true-effect/</a><br />
<a href="https://medium.com/@richarddmorey/new-paper-why-most-of-psychology-is-statistically-unfalsifiable-4c3b6126365a#.maizqdsok">https://medium.com/@richarddmorey/new-paper-why-most-of-psychology-is-statistically-unfalsifiable-4c3b6126365a#.maizqdsok</a><br />
<a href="http://www.dgpskongress.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=154">http://www.dgpskongress.de/frontend/index.php?page_id=154</a><br />
<a href="http://www.researchtransparency.org/">http://www.researchtransparency.org/</a><br />
<a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2016/08/22/bayesian-inference-completely-solves-the-multiple-comparisons-problem/">http://andrewgelman.com/2016/08/22/bayesian-inference-completely-solves-the-multiple-comparisons-problem/</a><br />
<a href="http://healthyinfluence.com/wordpress/2012/01/30/all-bad-statistics-are-persuasive-errors/">http://healthyinfluence.com/wordpress/2012/01/30/all-bad-statistics-are-persuasive-errors/</a><br />
<br />
A simulation of wealth inequality through a truly random procedure [clickbait title aside, it IS interesting]:<a href="http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2017/06/19/counterintuitive-problem-everyone-room-keeps-giving-dollars-random-others-youll-never-guess-happens-next/"> http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2017/06/19/counterintuitive-problem-everyone-room-keeps-giving-dollars-random-others-youll-never-guess-happens-next/</a>Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-38869671876165255182017-05-01T23:31:00.001-04:002017-09-12T22:10:17.702-04:00Life Lessons<br />
<br />
At the end of every semester, I hold a session for my students in which I talk about non-academic stuff. Since there are no classes and, often, no guidance on the everyday ins and outs of adulthood, somebody's gotta do something about this, right?<br />
<br />
Right?!?!<br />
<br />
So, I decided to do something about it! And I've made it available to everyone for free, right here! I've posted the <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjQW1VcXRFc0F4ZTg" target="_blank">PDF of my slideshow here</a>, since I like to make things freely available for all!<br />
<br />
To get my narration, however, you'll have to be one of my students...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjQW1VcXRFc0F4ZTg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><br /></a><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjQW1VcXRFc0F4ZTg" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjQW1VcXRFc0F4ZTg" border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="555" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj70p3iSaN0-i1JACtu6VaSIrkdpOlQ6N04K68EnK_PtefBS8dba-fClVlr4OshdyDEDURMWpQZHYRGZ8ddoprdSaSeE-FT6CiF7gP_tA_9FNaPcecFRNXANUgoti4AejxAfm7TT3d1v_41/s320/Life+Lessons_An+impossible+dream2.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<b>Addition on Sept. 5, 2017</b> - I feel vindicated after discovering this John Oliver bit about retirement, which echoes much of what I wrote about finance in the above slides:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/gvZSpET11ZY/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gvZSpET11ZY?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
Nothing like watching an episode of Last Week Tonight a year after it hit YouTube! More like Last <i>Year</i> Tonight, amirite?...OK, maybe I should leave the comedy to the comedians :/<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-2332505408650063802017-04-19T14:58:00.002-04:002017-09-12T22:16:20.276-04:00...And the winner is<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>...And the winner is...</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
In the ever-changing landscape of social media today, have you wondered lately what forms of social media college students are using most often?<br />
<br />
The students in my Spring 2017 stats class were wondering this very question! So, as a brief introduction to research (and as an example of the one-way ANOVA, which we had recently covered), I offered my class the option to get a couple extra credit points for surveying 5 of their friends about their social media usage.<br />
<br />
Read on for a snapshot of social media usage among college students right now!<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyhj7_TxXbAkqUmZF29wfEe4dndLSDQvmvUmkV0ii1kA2CuIAhjgglb9aa31_p1PAO0Y2ejs2S3tjgvSrjK6VO_JjK3KB4Ty9AfLOzZceFzGSjQfl8JinNefX3cSnvFsFyrr78qr9kzQD/s1600/2013_04_18_87_socialmedia.fad0b.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyhj7_TxXbAkqUmZF29wfEe4dndLSDQvmvUmkV0ii1kA2CuIAhjgglb9aa31_p1PAO0Y2ejs2S3tjgvSrjK6VO_JjK3KB4Ty9AfLOzZceFzGSjQfl8JinNefX3cSnvFsFyrr78qr9kzQD/s1600/2013_04_18_87_socialmedia.fad0b.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Image from <a href="http://i.amz.mshcdn.com/Cr3AwUJd_NUAEUoNFf4yfMUBiUY=/950x534/2013%2F04%2F18%2F87%2Fsocialmedia.fad0b.jpg">http://i.amz.mshcdn.com/Cr3AwUJd_NUAEUoNFf4yfMUBiUY=/950x534/2013%2F04%2F18%2F87%2Fsocialmedia.fad0b.jpg</a></span></div>
<br />
<b>Limitations</b><br />
<br />
I intentionally designed the survey with a couple weaknesses, to give the students some practice at identifying those limitations. We used a 7-point <a href="https://simplypsychology.org/likert-scale.html" target="_blank">Likert-type scale</a> [it's <a href="https://www.allaccess.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=24251" target="_blank">pronounced LICK-ert</a>, by the way! In case that link goes dead, <a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:qksabCu_kYAJ:www.allaccess.com/forum/viewtopic.php%3Ft%3D24251+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us" target="_blank">here's a cached version</a>]. <br />
<ol>
<li>Only the endpoints on this scale were labeled: a 1 indicated "I never use this form of social media" and a 7 indicated "I use this form of social media multiple times per day." <br /> <br />Not having any labels for the intermediate values is a weakness because it introduces an unacceptable amount of error based on how people interpret a particular number—how do we know that you and I interpret a value of "6" the same way? <br /><br />Answer: we don't. Hence, this is a weakness. And a rather serious one!<br /> </li>
<li>Another major weakness is that these students each asked about 5 friends at Bowling Green State University. <br /><br />Given that this is a Psych Stats course, many students are Psych majors. Given that fact, they probably have a disproportionately high number of friends who also major in psychology. Are Psych majors representative of all BGSU students, let alone all college students? <br /><br />Not necessarily; hence, the sampling procedure is another major limitation of this study. <br /><br />For purposes of a class demonstration, this flawed sample is fine. But it severely limits the ability to generalize the results to all BGSU undergraduate students, let alone college students nationwide. Or, at least, the sampling procedure inspires some doubt about generalizibility.<br /> </li>
<li>A third limitation is that I only included 5 forms of social media, rather than a more complete list. One student suggested including Tumblr, which is defensible—but for simplicity's sake, I shot that idea down. <br /><br />Respondents gave self-report data (on the aforementioned 1-7 scale) regarding their usage of: Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram, Twitter, and Pinterest. That's it.<br /><br />So, usage of LinkedIn, reddit, tumblr., Google+, flickr, SoundCloud, and other social networking sites were left out of the picture here. Even MySpace has stuck around, as musicians sometimes use it to gain additional exposure for their work. These sites are not captured in this survey.</li>
</ol>
<br />
Nonetheless, some data is better than no data! As far as student engagement goes, this data is also better than made-up data, because we're looking at real responses from real people—even if the survey methodology is less-than-ideal!<br />
<br />
<b>Results</b> <br />
<br />
The results of the survey are posted in .csv format on my Google Drive, publicly accessible <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjaTFiby01eTRsSms" target="_blank">here</a>. I did the analysis in <a href="http://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">JASP</a>, which I've <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html" target="_blank">previously recommended for many use cases</a> (the complete analysis is available <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjSm10akNyWjlRZ3c" target="_blank">here</a>) and in the even newer program <a href="http://jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a> (that analysis is available <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjSkR1TFZsUUtLTWs" target="_blank">here</a>).<br />
<br />
Here's the [un-editable] graph generated by JASP: <br />
<div style="display: inline-block; float: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: start;">
</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoYSlu4VWw4qWtVhFQ32wuJmcSfpx0JzDuDxq4DxXxqcp42bhhYJqTAi_hoBqgehBr2cixujKm2UcyWd5QjouoYi-QW-gZTdWkVPDacoZd4Yf0NNNOgW-SDI7kQ25raToSCGhP9yK-0T6u/s1600/Graph.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoYSlu4VWw4qWtVhFQ32wuJmcSfpx0JzDuDxq4DxXxqcp42bhhYJqTAi_hoBqgehBr2cixujKm2UcyWd5QjouoYi-QW-gZTdWkVPDacoZd4Yf0NNNOgW-SDI7kQ25raToSCGhP9yK-0T6u/s1600/Graph.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
And here are the descriptive stats:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQBd5FGX00qxM1EcfNMTOtHn7ZNrxyqOZ2WZDnupBwynZOQdHqouowa9Is9rbtjNWzt2u30Oqjd8GzJXNJOO6StjFDuCDWMic_wf-8Yr2WX_VvMF3tks-IDQh4TNEXwBXePJ2OIw97TF1Y/s1600/Social+media_descriptives.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQBd5FGX00qxM1EcfNMTOtHn7ZNrxyqOZ2WZDnupBwynZOQdHqouowa9Is9rbtjNWzt2u30Oqjd8GzJXNJOO6StjFDuCDWMic_wf-8Yr2WX_VvMF3tks-IDQh4TNEXwBXePJ2OIw97TF1Y/s1600/Social+media_descriptives.JPG" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
A couple highlights:<br />
<ul>
<li>Snapchat is the clear winner, with the highest mean (5.671) <i>and</i> the lowest SD (1.819)</li>
<li>Instagram takes second place, Facebook is a close third, and Twitter
lags behind. Pinterest is a distant last place in this sample</li>
<li>The <i>F</i>-ratio was 'statistically significant': <i>F</i>(4, 360) = 22.08, <i>p</i> < .001</li>
<li>For effect size, I used eta-squared: Eta-squared = 0.197</li>
<li>A post-hoc analysis (with Tukey correction) reveals that Pinterest
is significantly different from all others (duh!) and Snapchat is
significantly different from Twitter. Instagram and Twitter are also
significantly different.<br /> </li>
<li>Statisticians will note that Levene's test reveals a violation of
the assumption of equality of variance. Strictly speaking, this means
that we should not run an ANOVA; instead, we should use a non-parametric
alternative like the Kruskal-Wallis H-test. <br /><br />In my experience,
though, this rarely yields a fundamentally different result. And after
you run the H-test, you still need a post-hoc test anyway! </li>
</ul>
<br />
For convenience's sake, I've screencapped the post-hoc test as well. [Click to enlarge image] <br />
</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKctyHGBTged9KKb3dmjXkaZOZcndU73Bx0H2PJhgtLM-7DGKbFPVk1jjWyN8eMQnIA0y21j-4WaGlhShDs4rCbvwLXsUxUDVeZQKTx2wn0nNh1RWnob2h-jsxOIs6P4o485SgFRE4DiY/s1600/Social+media_analyses.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKctyHGBTged9KKb3dmjXkaZOZcndU73Bx0H2PJhgtLM-7DGKbFPVk1jjWyN8eMQnIA0y21j-4WaGlhShDs4rCbvwLXsUxUDVeZQKTx2wn0nNh1RWnob2h-jsxOIs6P4o485SgFRE4DiY/s400/Social+media_analyses.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
I ran the post-hoc test in the brand-new stats program <a href="https://www.jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, which allows you to run the post-hoc test with no correction or with several of the most frequently-used correction procedures. I like how jamovi let me do the analysis both ways, and showed the results side-by-side.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWNx4kz9rBjwptl_YjSv6DtXvGn-l24ns7x4O2HBuvzExjcsfcycAPtIGdpPMrvZMV5Vfu27g4J9oOIW7xYDqyKcJYR1YbSNpInVItppvoVHUinTNwlsqKdYxyQYFZ-bNAMQjYYqc_fbJK/s1600/Social+media_post+hoc+with+no+correction.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWNx4kz9rBjwptl_YjSv6DtXvGn-l24ns7x4O2HBuvzExjcsfcycAPtIGdpPMrvZMV5Vfu27g4J9oOIW7xYDqyKcJYR1YbSNpInVItppvoVHUinTNwlsqKdYxyQYFZ-bNAMQjYYqc_fbJK/s1600/Social+media_post+hoc+with+no+correction.JPG" /></a></div>
You can see that a post-hoc analysis with <i>no</i>
correction for multiple comparisons yields a significant difference for
Facebook vs. Snapchat. It also shows that Facebook and Twitter are almost, but not
quite, significantly different (<i>p</i> = .055). Should we ignore this result because it <a href="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/ed/64/8f/ed648ff83c3557d1e76822330be32025.jpg" target="_blank">didn't meet the sacred .05 criterion</a>? <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
I'd say that we should consider it in the context of the study. What are we looking for? Patterns in usage of social media among college students (specifically, college students at BGSU).<br />
<br />
What are we trying to accomplish? Well, let's suppose I'm trying to advertise a product or service to college students, in which case I want my ad to be seen by as many college students as possible, for as few $$$ as possible.<br />
<br />
Even if the difference between Facebook and Twitter usage isn't significant at the conventional alpha level of .05, if we're talking about efficiency of time, effort, and money, it's close enough that I'd certainly consider advertising on Facebook instead of Twitter!<br />
<br />
So is Tukey's correction (or another multiple correction procedure) necessary here? It's certainly debatable; I fall on the "no" side of things—after all, if there's a significant ANOVA, then there's clearly a significant difference somewhere, right? <a href="http://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2288-2-8" target="_blank">Multiple correction procedures reduce power</a>, so if you use a correction like Tukey's test, you could end up with a significant ANOVA but no significant post-hoc results!<br />
<br />
And <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/01/what-you-think-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">significance</a> is <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/02/stat-ception-what-you-think-you-know.html" target="_blank">kind of overblown</a>, anyway... </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
But I've <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/" target="_blank">made my case</a> already; <a href="http://pages.uoregon.edu/stevensj/posthoc.pdf" target="_blank">you can decide for yourself</a>. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
_________________</div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Remember, if you're interested in a more nuanced analysis, you can download the .csv file linked above and run the analyses yourself! I suggest using <a href="http://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">JASP</a> or <a href="https://www.jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, which are both <a href="http://blog.efpsa.org/2017/03/23/introducing-jamovi-free-and-open-statistical-software-combining-ease-of-use-with-the-power-of-r/" target="_blank">free of cost and open-source</a>!</div>
<ul>
</ul>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-30782313790310323742017-04-14T11:35:00.000-04:002017-09-12T22:10:40.244-04:00Guides to pre-registered experiments<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>Guides to methodological pre-registration for experiments</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
If you're like me, you've considered doing a pre-registered study but put it off because you weren't sure what to expect or how much paperwork there would be. I've become a big proponent of open science [I'm working on a future blog post on the topic], as I think it's crucially important to make your materials, data, conclusions, etc. available to other researchers and to the wider public!<br />
<br />
As <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2916240" target="_blank">Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn (2017)</a> wrote, pre-registration and full methodological disclosure are crucial to the credibility of psychological research. If we want to be taken seriously as scientists, we should behave in accordance with the highest standards of scientific integrity...and that includes pre-registering our studies. <br />
<br />
Why pre-registration? Two big reasons: 1) it prevents us from <a href="http://psych.utoronto.ca/users/peterson/psy430s2001/Kunda%20Z%20Motivated%20Reasoning%20Psych%20Bull%201990.pdf" target="_blank">fooling ourselves</a> about our own research findings, and 2) it gives us something we can point to and say "Yes, I planned to do that all along!"<br />
<br />
And if we didn't <i>actually</i> plan it all along, it forces us to face the facts—which should serve to keep us humble.<br />
<br />
Despite what some people may think, increased transparency is good for science. Period. Sanjay Srivastava gives the topic a thoughtful treatment <a href="https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2017/04/06/learning-exactly-the-wrong-lesson/" target="_blank">here</a>, and I agree with him. Our priority should be high-quality science first, PR/funding concerns a DISTANT second. If we have good science in the first place, many of the other concerns will evaporate.<br />
<br />
So, here are two resources to give you a good overview of the pre-registration process, and to guide you through what's required:<br />
<ul>
<li>A pretty comprehensive 22-page overview openly available on the OSF: <a href="https://osf.io/sn6by/">https://osf.io/sn6by/</a> </li>
<li>A much briefer blog post by James Bartlett, a PhD student in the UK: <a href="https://bartlettje.github.io/2017-03-29-effective-preregistration/">https://bartlettje.github.io/2017-03-29-effective-preregistration/</a></li>
</ul>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-892303863267001212017-04-06T10:19:00.000-04:002018-05-30T11:29:25.444-04:00A replacement for SPSS?<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: small;">Could this program be the end of</span> SPSS?</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I have <a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">previously recommended JASP</a> as a useful—and free!—statistical software package. I stand by that recommendation (nay, I'm doubling down on it!) as JASP has the following advantages:<br />
<ol>
<li>A slick, easy-to-grasp user interface</li>
<li>All of the major types of statistical test, including one-sample, repeated-measures, and independent-samples <i>t</i> tests, ANOVA, ANCOVA, correlation, regression, and even the chi-square test for independence [i.e. the two-variable chi-square]. It even has a module for structural equation modeling, for those who conduct such analyses!</li>
<li>Bayesian analogues to each of the above tests</li>
<li>A simple, one-click method to run these tests, which makes it an ideal instructional tool (and useful for many basic research needs as well). </li>
<li>It's a no-cost, open-source, cross-platform (Windows, MacOS, Linux) program, so there are zero barriers to personal use.</li>
<li>It launches pretty quickly, and runs extremely fast—even on low-powered computers.<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span> </li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrbPIYFI2H8JZ_2yLGDkloi0tfNWAT6T6fpVGaD59Y9FXtzLa7vLMisjCj8QQIseHxNN2wZtbb7c143jMVLo9edyXoObfc-7g_3X8VQ9OZhwcNbi4BlGxjKZx-0mgfjg7YBhGUKXu_vBvZ/s1600/JASP+Screenshot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1366" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrbPIYFI2H8JZ_2yLGDkloi0tfNWAT6T6fpVGaD59Y9FXtzLa7vLMisjCj8QQIseHxNN2wZtbb7c143jMVLo9edyXoObfc-7g_3X8VQ9OZhwcNbi4BlGxjKZx-0mgfjg7YBhGUKXu_vBvZ/s400/JASP+Screenshot.png" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">JASP Screenshot from my own personal computer </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">This image is freely available for use; just cite </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html">http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html</a> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
The recent [March 21, 2017] release of version 0.8.1.1 has rendered JASP is even more useful than it was in the past! Here's the latest major change to the program: </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<ul>
<li>Data synchronization that (finally!) allows you to edit your data from within the program itself. You can sync a .csv file, .sav file, or .ods [<a href="http://www.libreoffice.org/" target="_blank">LibreOffice</a> spreadsheet] file. </li>
<ul>
<li>By the way, LibreOffice is a great, free alternative to Microsoft Office. I encourage you to check it out and <a href="https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/floss-and-foss.en.html" target="_blank">shed the shackles of expensive, closed-source software</a>!</li>
</ul>
</ul>
Now that you can edit the data in a window in the statistical program itself (via data synchronization, which can be turned off if you so desire), and since a previous build allowed users to integrate JASP output with their <a href="https://osf.io/" target="_blank">OSF page</a>, I think that JASP has finally become good enough to provide many researchers with all the statistical capability they need!<br />
<br />
SPSS can still perform some of the more esoteric/advanced statistical procedures that JASP cannot, such as multi-level modeling. But since such procedures tend to be used relatively infrequently (at least in experimental social science research such as <a href="http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16202a/jdm16202a.pdf" target="_blank">my own</a>), JASP can probably handle the bulk of your analytical load. <br />
<br />
Further, as a stats instructor, this tool is my secret weapon! I am encouraging students to use this program for an APA-style paper for which they have to run a handful of analyses to answer different questions.<br />
<br />
This semester, I asked my Stats students how they felt about SPSS, and they generally weren't too fond of the program due to its complexity, pickiness, and uninformative error messages (not to mention an appearance that's stuck in the 1990s). <br />
<br />
After I demonstrated JASP in class, the students seemed far more impressed with the free and open JASP than they were with the <a href="https://www.ibm.com/us-en/marketplace/spss-statistics/purchase#product-header" target="_blank">costly</a> SPSS!<br />
<br />
<b>EDIT 5/30/2018</b>: <i>Just discovered that JASP is now available as an online resource, according to <a href="https://jasp-stats.org/2018/05/01/how-to-run-jasp-in-your-browser/" target="_blank">this blog post</a> on the JASP website and <a href="https://twitter.com/EJWagenmakers/status/990250429362724864" target="_blank">a Tweet by E.J. Wagenmakers</a>. You have to sign up for a RollApp account if you want to use this option.</i><br />
<br />
And, if for some reason you're not a fan of JASP, a similar (and also free!) option called <a href="https://www.jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a> is under development. You can type data straight into this one, whereas I don't believe that's an option yet in JASP. jamovi lacks some features that JASP incorporates, but it's still a nice stats program for use in the classroom (or for your research)!<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfcmM03BxAQyo2KdsaMitj8NmxOXwJ1yV6lhgOp9OdD3gMgayzdUtLN92gBRFsuExjL6MVDs1gGVxhXFQ7ZtY_a2FO4Zf8aG9kKEXo-GfO2Lm_fWhm7z0gYooX6Sj-ORK3Gkyggaq6FJP2/s1600/jamovi+screenshot.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1366" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfcmM03BxAQyo2KdsaMitj8NmxOXwJ1yV6lhgOp9OdD3gMgayzdUtLN92gBRFsuExjL6MVDs1gGVxhXFQ7ZtY_a2FO4Zf8aG9kKEXo-GfO2Lm_fWhm7z0gYooX6Sj-ORK3Gkyggaq6FJP2/s400/jamovi+screenshot.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">jamovi screenshot from my own personal computer</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">This image is freely available for use; just cite </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html">http://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/04/a-replacement-for-spss.html</a> </span></div>
<br />
Should IBM be worried about SPSS adoption rates? Maybe...<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2023627486136613819" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2023627486136613819" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">Intrigued? <a href="http://jasp-stats.org/" target="_blank">Here is the website</a>;
you can download JASP by clicking </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">the "Download" tab and selecting the
version that's appropriate for your operating system. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Or you can just
follow <a href="https://jasp-stats.org/download/" target="_blank">this link</a> instead. Hey, what do you have to lose? </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Try out this free stats program and see if it meets your needs! If it doesn't, you can just uninstall it...</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">If you'd like to try <a href="http://jamovi.org/" target="_blank">jamovi</a>, here's the link for that. </span></div>
</div>
Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-28319983889070913842017-02-27T15:26:00.005-05:002017-09-26T02:05:57.638-04:00Stat-ception II: How to fix statistics in psychology<div style="text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>Stat-ception Part II</b></div>
<br />
I'm a star!<br />
<br />
OK, my public speaking skills may not exactly have made me a star (yet!), but I AM on YouTube! I've included a link to my recent (Feb 2017) <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/complexcognitionbgsu/cognition-forum" target="_blank">Cognition Forum presentations</a>, as well as my current thinking about easily--and immediately implementable--solutions to ameliorate those weaknesses.<br />
<br />
The first video goes into depth about the issues; the second describes my proposed solutions to those problems. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvPJKAgYsyoKcGOCKEYT2GyzK0yLVXvzN">https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvPJKAgYsyoKcGOCKEYT2GyzK0yLVXvzN</a><br />
<br />
For your viewing pleasure, I've also embedded the videos here:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/JgZZkMJhPvI/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JgZZkMJhPvI?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe> </div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/z45a2POjVxQ/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z45a2POjVxQ?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
Any feedback or advice is welcome! <br />
<br />
I've also made the slideshows available on Google Drive. Here's the link to the first slideshow, so you can follow along: <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjTktiMGdoQ3JBSHM/view">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjTktiMGdoQ3JBSHM/view</a>. And here's the link to the slideshow for the second video as well: <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjalZxdFJfUWNKTVU/view?usp=sharing">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjalZxdFJfUWNKTVU/view?usp=sharing</a><br />
<br />
A draft of my manuscript on the topic (intended for eventual publication) is freely available for download at <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/">https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/</a>.
Since I'm an advocate of the open science movement, it's only right
that I make my own work publicly available--hence why I uploaded these
videos (and my manuscript) to public repositories.<br />
<br />
You may not trust my own take on these issues, in which case I commend you for your skepticism! In the videos, I made numerous references to <a href="http://www.deirdremccloskey.com/docs/jsm.pdf" target="_blank">Ziliak & McCloskey (2009)</a>, <a href="http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/GG_Mindless_2004.pdf" target="_blank">Gigerenzer (2004)</a>, and <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6251/aac4716.full.pdf" target="_blank">Open Science Collaboration (2015)</a>--all are worth reading, for anyone who cares about scientific integrity and the research process. All three works were highly influential in my thinking on this topic, though I cited a variety of other papers as well in <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/" target="_blank">my aforementioned manuscript</a>. <br />
<br />
You may disagree with my recommendations in the second video, and if so, that's okay! How to address the limitations of NHST and fix science is absolutely a discussion worth having; I advance my own ideas in the spirit of jump-starting such a discussion.<br />
<br />
So, please put your thoughts in the comments, and share my work with colleagues who may be interested in the topic!Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-38261483794681723432017-02-20T15:48:00.003-05:002017-09-26T02:05:41.529-04:00Stat-ception: Everything you think you know about psych stats is wrong!<br />
<br />
<br />
In the spirit of open science, I have posted a video of a talk on statistical practice that I gave in the <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/complexcognitionbgsu/cognition-forum" target="_blank">Cognition Forum at Bowling Green State University</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
This talk was in 2 parts; the first part summarizes many of the common objections to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) that thinkers have made over the decades, and the second part goes over my current recommendations to tackle the problem.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
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" width="320" /> </div>
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Part I is available at <a href="https://youtu.be/JgZZkMJhPvI">https://youtu.be/JgZZkMJhPvI</a>; Part II is forthcoming! I've also embedded the video right here:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/JgZZkMJhPvI/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JgZZkMJhPvI?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
You can view and download the full slideshow at <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjTktiMGdoQ3JBSHM">https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4ZtXTwxIPrjTktiMGdoQ3JBSHM</a>. The free (and very easy-to-use!) statistical program JASP can be found at <a href="https://jasp-stats.org/">https://jasp-stats.org/</a>. JASP is useful if you want to run the analysis on the precision-vs-oomph example that I discuss at the end of the video (at the 39:41 mark).<br />
<br />
I have already tackled some of the <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2017/01/what-you-think-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">issues with NHST</a> on <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/12/when-statistics-are-meaningless.html" target="_blank">more than one occasion</a> in prior posts here, and I have also provided a <a href="https://psychsci.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-practical-guide-to-psych-stats.html" target="_blank">practical guide to psych stats as a freely available educational resource</a>! <br />
<br />
There are a variety of excellent papers on the topic of statistical practice in social science fields; my working paper on the subject summarizes them. In the interest of open science, I've made this working paper available at <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/">https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/hp53k/</a>. Other great resources on the topic include <a href="http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/GG_Mindless_2004.pdf" target="_blank">Gigerenzer (2004)</a> and <a href="http://www.deirdremccloskey.com/docs/jsm.pdf" target="_blank">Ziliak & McCloskey (2009)</a>, which are also freely available. Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-10422382567576152412017-01-31T11:30:00.000-05:002017-09-12T22:12:58.192-04:00Computer guide for psych majors<div style="text-align: center;">
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<div style="font-variant: small-caps; line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br />
<br />
<b>Computer guide for psych majors</b></div>
<br />
If you're about to be a psych major, <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjc2F2dW42MG45R0E/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">here's your handy tech guide</a>! Spoiler alert: you won't need an expensive computer.<br />
<br />
If you're going to grad school for psychology, your needs may be a bit different...but chances are good that the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjc2F2dW42MG45R0E/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">recommendations here</a> will suffice for you as well.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjc2F2dW42MG45R0E/view" target="_blank"><img alt="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4ZtXTwxIPrjc2F2dW42MG45R0E/view" border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih0r5bJrJGXSTISXj9bvgNX1J1TUhLK44I58xz_7Kf-MT5C8ZRt2kOVV8QNHshLgFFTVqPtFBjdh3fmvMZuTBIsOuXNkoT4BKiR6NSN-DumS-d9PkmTbRcwwucbGXc-2vLByMgcuhQTOaR/s320/Computer+advice.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />Psych Sci Blogspothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03121226222515651689noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2023627486136613819.post-17050569166460231322017-01-22T21:09:00.002-05:002017-09-12T22:13:07.240-04:00Thinking about the GRE?<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; page-break-inside: auto;">
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<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Thinking
about grad school and the GRE?</b></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">You'll
find some review materials available <a href="https://www.ets.org/gre/revised_general/prepare/?WT.ac=grehome_greprepare_b_150213">here</a>.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />
Up-to-date
information about the test itself, the nearest testing center to you,
registration for the test, and more is available <a href="https://www.ets.org/gre">here</a>.</span></span></div>
<ul>
<li>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Start
preparing for the GRE over winter break of your junior year, at the
latest. Take practice tests, to get familiar with the kinds of
questions on the exam and the time limits you'll face. <br /><br />Prepare more
intensively in the months before you take the exam. There are free
materials available online, or at your local library—it's not
necessary to spend $30+ on a prep book. </span></span>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">If
you're particularly bad at taking tests, you may want to begin
practicing even earlier. Many programs, particularly
academic-focused (as opposed to career-oriented) programs, assume as
a matter of course that you'll do well on the GRE. <br /><br />For certain
graduate programs, like a PhD in Creative Writing, your score on the
Quantitative sections isn't so important; likewise, your Analytical
Writing score holds less weight with a PhD program in Mathematics or
Physics. If your goal is to attend a Master's program and enter the
workforce directly afterward, the expectations for your GRE score
will be a bit lower than the expectations of a PhD program. </span></span>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">You'll
want to take the GRE before the beginning of your final year in
college—if you take it </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>during</i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">
the year, when you're taking a full load of classes, you'll be too
stressed out to do your best. You'll also have to take a trip to <a href="https://www.ets.org/gre/revised_general/register/centers_dates/">the
nearest specialized exam center (if you're in the U.S.)</a>. </span></span>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">More
importantly, carefully pick the programs you're applying to. You pay
$195 to take the test. On the day of the test, you can select 4
schools to receive your score; know where you want to send your GRE
results. <br /><br />To send your score to any additional universities, you will
have to pay $27 per school (and it may cost more than that now;
prices only go up). </span></span>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">How
do you know which schools you want to apply to? Pick your particular
area of interest, and know which professors you'd like to work with.
Think of it less as applying to a particular <i>school</i>, and more
as an application to work with a particular professor (or a
particular set of professors). <br /><br />Know the acceptance rate of each
program you apply to, and to improve your odds of acceptance, be sure
that they're not all top-tier, hyper-competitive programs. <br /><br />It's often
helpful to get some relevant experience in that field, and if you get
an interview with one of the professors you'd like to work with, be
prepared to discuss your interest—as well as your research
ideas—with someone who already has a PhD in the field.</span></span></div>
<ul>
<li>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A
subpar GRE score is not necessarily going to ruin your chances of
admission to a graduate program, but it will decrease your odds
(especially if you plan to apply to top-tier programs). If you don't
do so well, it may be worth addressing (briefly) in your academic
statement of purpose or your personal statement. <br /><br />If you get a
disappointing score, resist the urge to explain it away, even if you
have a legitimate reason for your low score (e.g. "I had been
sick for several days before the test," or "My neighbors
had a loud party that ruined my sleep the night before the test")—it
will appear that you're making excuses, and that probably won't go
over so well. <br /><br />You're better off presenting a poor score in a
positive light, for example, "My GRE score may not have been
impressive, but a top-notch work ethic, hunger for success, and
passion for the field have always allowed me to overcome any
limitations I've faced." It won't always work, but if you have
relevant experience and a strong GPA, a potential advisor may be
willing to overlook a substandard GRE score.</span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Sound
scary? It is. It is wise to start thinking about this process early;
it'll make your life a lot easier when you've planned this process in
advance. Start preparing for the GRE early, and also go into the
testing center knowing which schools you want to apply to.</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0.04in; margin-top: 0.14in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The
part of the grad school admissions process that will take the most
time and effort is identifying schools that AREN'T top-tier or very
well-known...but that is the research that is most likely to pay off! The chances of admission are much greater at Middle Of
Nowhere University than at a school like Harvard or Princeton. <br /><br />If you
think your record is strong enough, you're certainly welcome to apply
to top programs in your field—but just remember that if it's a
highly-ranked school, <i>everyone</i> will apply there, so the chance
that a professor actually looks at your application is much slimmer
than at a less-competitive program. Hedge your bets by applying to
both types of schools. </span></span>
</div>
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